Where The Candidates Stand: Volume One

Poster Rob has asked that I spend some time talking about where I see the chances of the candidates currently, and where my current thoughts lie about the candidates. Luckily I was headed toward this post eventually anyway and we will just call it the first installation of what will be a periodic update on where they stand and how I am feeling about them.

I think first of all it is important to point out that this decision was almost non-existent. During last spring I got pulled into the website and work of former governor of Virginia Mark Warner. I started doing some initial planning and legwork in Iowa for the upstart movement that was attempting to influence Mark Warner to run for President. I really liked Mark Warner and if he had decided to enter the race he would have been my candidate, and I really believe he had the solid credentials that would have lifted him toward the nomination. Now I hope that he is considering running for the Senate in Virginia in 2008.

That aside, I shall break down the candidates into four tiers: No Chance, Long Shots, On the Brink, and Rock Stars. I shall then post some thoughts on each candidate relating to their chances and how I feel about them so far in the process.

No Chance (Candidates that just don't have the backing or electability)

Michael Gravel: These are really the type of candidates you have to love and want to pull for. Individuals that have worked hard, are not beholden to anyone, and say exactly what they think. I must admit that I had never even heard of him until recently. I do like some of his ideas, but realistically he is a no go.

Dennis Kucinich: I really like this guy from Ohio and all of his anti-war vigor. He takes beatings like no one else and keeps bouncing back to stay on message. This is another one of those candidates that makes so much noise that they help shape some parts of the debate. Kucinich's message about the war in Iraq represent a pretty strong voice in America, even though he is ultimately unelectable. In the last election he advocated for a Department of Peace, which I think is a neat idea. However, I was also turned off by his political posturing during the Iowa Caucuses of 2004 when he made a deal to swing his votes to John Edwards if he did not reach critical mass in each precinct. At that time Kucinich and Edwards were on different ends of the war spectrum and in my mind if Kucinich was going to swing votes to anyone it should have been Howard Dean.

Al Sharpton: Yeah, he just doesn't have the mass appeal to be a serious candidate.

Chris Dodd: A lot of press was given in the last election to the difficulties that Senators have had recently in running for President. It seems that the electorate much prefers to elect Governors that have experience with running a state, which they may seem as comparable to the administrative job of running the nation. Dodd is the first of several current Senators that are considering a run for the White House. Unlike some of the other Senators running, Dodd is not a name that many households would recognize. His career of service is good. I have not heard enough of his message to size him up and honestly I think he is a long shot.

Long Shots (Candidates that have a chance, but have some big hurdles)

Tom Vilsack: The former Governor of Iowa. Vilsack is a clear centrist and head of the Democratic Leadership Council which is a very moderate organization (some say to conservative) wing of the Democratic Party. In fact it was the DLC that Howard Dean was referencing in 2004 when he stated that he came "from the Democratic wing of the Democratic party". Vilsack is a champion of education and has been extremely popular during his tenure in Iowa. He has the common sense values and a pretty outgoing nature. He faces the huge task of folks not knowing who he is or much about him. His biggest advantage is being from Iowa and being popular in the state, although he still trails the big names in polling in the state. I like Vilsack, but I like him much better as a possible VP candidate (he was on the very short list in 2004) or to run for Senate should Tom Harkin decide to retire before 2008. He must win in Iowa to have a realistic shot, otherwise it is all over. I expect him to pull out in the fall if he is not polling well in Iowa at that time. I got a soft spot in my heart for the Governor of my former state, but realistically I just don't know if he has the kind of inspirational fire I am looking for.

Joe Biden: We talked about Joe Biden in an earlier post so I won't sum up to much. He may be a stronger candidate then I give him credit for, he has pretty much been saying he was going to run since the end of the 2004 campaign. He has some solid credentials in the Senate and is pretty hawkish for a Democrat, which might appeal to some voters. I think he still has a long way to go to climb through, but if the field does not pull some of the rock stars in, he could be a surprise that moves up.

John Kerry: Kerry has the money assembled and the name recognition to launch another campaign in 2008. He even has some noterity in early polls, but so did Joe Lieberman going into 2004. The simple fact is that Kerry could not beat a very unpopular President at the one time he should have been beaten. I don't think the public will embrace Kerry again, especially if we see Clinton or Obama enter the race. His record has been put out on display, so in that regard he is a pretty known commodity. The fact that he made another big slip up with his troop joke before the 2006 mid-terms probably was the last nail in his already rapidly closing coffin. I hope he decides not to run, but with all of his money and fame he may decide to jump back in there. An already lame and damaged candidate is not what we need in 2008.

On The Brink (These candidates have the potential to vault into the upper tier)

Wesley Clark: If Clark had decided to enter the race in 2004 a bit ealier he might have been able to generate some real support and might have ended up challenging Kerry more then he did. Wesley Clark continues to be a candidate that gets a lot of attention because of his obvious military background. At a time of war and uncertainity with Islamist extremists it is the only natural that voters may want someone with strong foreign/military experience. Clark fits the bill, but does not seem to have the easy affability that makes him highly electable. On the flipside he does also does not carry the stodgy military personality that you may see in other career military men. Personally I would have liked to see Clark do more in the interim since 2004 to increase his governing credentials. Yes he would be a strong voice on security, but do I really feel like he is someone that will promote a strong domestic agenda? If he is able to put together some opinions on his domestic plans, learns to be a bit more charming, and the war in Iraq continues to be a mess, he could gain some traction. He seems to be well admired and favored by large portions of the liberal on-line contingent, which could bolster his already moderate appeal.

Bill Richardson: He has quite a bit of positives stacked in his corner. He has effectively managed a small state, but a state that is very racially diverse and is dealing with one of the hot button issues of 2008, immigration and illegal entry. He has been the head of the Governor's Association where he was able to help pick up Governorships in 2006. He also has been involved in lots of diplomatic efforts, most recently with Sudan, but also with North Korea. He has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize four times for his humanitarian efforts with hostage release. He served in Congress for 15 year, was the Ambassador to the UN, and was Secretary of Energy. The more I learn about him the more I like him. He also is another candidate that would come from an under represented group, Latinos. The increasingly growing population of Latino citizens and issues that directly impact them, could be a huge factor in driving his ability to make early traction. Now that Nevada is one of the lead-off states in the nominating process he could make a big splash early on. If California ends up bumping their primary into February (which they are considering) he could score some more early gains. He is one I am keeping a close eye on.

Rock Stars (The top tier, people already with a huge edge and great buzz)

Hillary Clinton: One thing I know for sure. I will not be supporting Hillary Clinton in the primary process. She may eventually emerge as the nominee and at that time I will throw myself under the bus for her if need be. Two maini reasons lead me to say this. First of all, my own view of American politics is that it should be representative of the common man as much as possible, it should be fluid, and it should not be dominated by small groups of elites. I love Bill Clinton. I have not been fond of the Bush family. I personally think it is time to break the cylce of occupation of the White House by only two families in this country. By the time 2008 rolls around a Bush or Clinton will have been in the White House for 20 years. I just really don't want to see that continue for another 4-8years. I think it is time for a fresh change of ideas! The second reason is that ultimately I do not feel Hillary is electable against a Republican candidate (unless they put up a big right winger like Brownback). Fairly or unfairly Hillary carries a lot of baggage and animosity from many general election voters. She also is not loved by the left-wing, progressive block. Her move toward being more of a moderate (reaching out to Republicans, adjusting her stand on the issues, etc.) pissed off the left-wing and likely made general election voters question her even more (the flip flopper syndrome). Still, she is a formidable Senator that has done well to pad and enhance her resume. All of her dirty laundry is out there, so people know what they are getting. I think it will be interesting to see her go head to head with the other candidates and how she is received in some states out there. I really don't think she will come through with the nomination, but she clearly has the most early buzz and support in a nationwide look.

Barack Obama: No one is bigger then Barack right now...he actually is the rock star of the group right now and he has not even announced if he is running. The key moment for Obama was delivering the Keynote address at the 2004 Conventions, which you can watch here. It launched him from state senator into the stratosphere. His easy going demeanor and inspirational tone allow folks to believe in him, which is a rare thing in politics these days. He carries common sense philosophy and the concerns of the common man which allow people to relate to him. He is well spoken and humble. These alone have gotten him this far, but it will be his developing experience and vision for the future that help shape where his campaign may go. In many ways he is the anti-Hillary for Democrats that are not sure about her electability. He is raw, he is unproven, and he lacks a lot of significant experience. His supporters will say he mirrors another raw politician from Illinois, Abraham Lincoln, who overcame inexperience to lead the nation. I must confess I really like Obama because in the end I want to be insprired and believe in someone. I am reading his book, The Audacity of Hope, right now and am enjoying his candor and insight. I think he is someone that seeks to unite around commonalities rather then tear down over simple differences. I worry about his lack of experience and his past has some checkered bits (cocaine use) that will be easy fodder for oponents. He has a young family and I expect he will make his decision by the end of this month. He is one of my top choices right now simply because I am already buying into his vision of what America can be. His flirtations with running have changed the landscape and may force Hillary to declare her candidacy much sooner then she would have liked to.

John Edwards: No candidate is more favored by the current setup of primaries then John Edwards. He is leading in early polling in Iowa and has spent tons of time in the state since 2004. Add his birth state of South Carolina into the first four and all of a sudden you have the possibility that Edwards could win two of the first four contests. If he shows well or wins New Hampshire and Nevada he could be on his way to a quick nomination. Edwards carries the populist appeal that many moderate voters are looking for in elections. He also carries the name recognition from the 2004 campaign. He is very easy going, easy on the eyes, and is a great campaigner. He has a wife that people love and has a great story (son of a mill worker). He is from a Southern state and brings that appeal that might be beneficial in helping win a state like Virginia or North Carolina. The knock on Edwards in 2004 was his level of experience and that has not changed that much, but he carries the populist torch. He has been quick to critcize the war in Iraq and admit that he regrets his vote to authorize the vote. I like Edwards okay, but something has always bugged me about him that I cannot put my finger on.

The Wild Card

Al Gore: The 800 pound gorilla that could shake up the whole race and make things very interesting. He says that he is not interested and will sit out this election. He has been using the last four years to promote his global warming concerns and has refocused himself after losing the 2000 election. Gore is someone that many Dems might flock to if he were to enter the race because he is almost seen as the "elder statesman" of the party. He is Mr. Vice President and he actually got more popular vote then George Bush. It might be his time to come back in. The scenario I envision is this: Obama decides not to enter and Hillary runs. By September no one is in love with the candidates that the Dems have to offer...in swoops Al Gore who can raise buckets of money quickly and with his new energy could explode things into an exciting frenzy. I liked Al Gore in 2000 and I like who he has become since then even more.

Those are the candidates in my perspective as things stand today. Lots will happen to shake things up. A Long Shot or No Chance could come from nowhere...who would have predicted what Howard Dean was able to do. Of the candidates, I really like four (Gore, Edwards, Obama, and Richardson) but that could change as I learn more about each of the candidates and hear what they have to say. I am hoping some will soon come swinging through Wisconsin so that I can see them in person...for this reason I miss Iowa. Being in that state is like instant access to presidential candidates.