It is so super early, but it is interesting to take a look at a couple of early polls...if nothing else but to show that Hillary really has some work to do if she is really to be considered the early front runner.
A new poll from Rasmussen that measured from 1/8-1/11 (before Obama announced), MoE 5%:
(Parenthesis are results from last poll, 11/8-12/4)
Clinton 22 (34)
Obama 21 (17)
Edwards 15 (9)
Gore 7 (9)
Kerry 4 (3)
Biden 4 (3)
(Crosstabs not available yet, so no updated numbers on the following:)
Clark ? (3)
Vilsack ? (1)
Richardson ? (1)
Other ? (7)
Not sure ? (15)
Most surprising is how far Hillary fell off from the last poll, leaving her and Obama in a virtual dead heat. This was before he announced as well. My guess is this kind of fall means that she will have to declare soon to try and get some of the heavy news about Obama to die down and get some press herself.
The second poll is the January Straw Poll from Daily Kos. This poll can be significant because Kos is a site that caters to a crowd that is a bit more left and progressive, which are people that campaign hard, donate online, and come out to vote in primaries. If you follow the link it shows the trend from several months of polling from even 2005.
Jan
Edwards 35
Obama 28
Clark 17
Richardson 5
H. Clinton 4
Biden 1
Kerry 1
Vilsack 0
Dodd 0
Gravel 0
Update: Zogby has his first poll of Iowa, but be warned that caucuses are very hard to poll.
Edwards 27
Obama 17
Vilsack 16
Clinton 16
Biden 3
Kerry 3
Kucinich 1
Richardson 1
Unsure 13
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When you're done making 5000 a week on this blog - I found a good blog that does a good run down on the Republican side. They keep a constantly updated ranking of the likelyhood (there's a button on the right). Might be interesting to check out every now and then when you just want to know what they're up to. :)
http://www.gop2008blog.com/
Jeez, doesn't take long for the spam to hit. I will check out the site. The Republican side is a pretty interesting race as well considering there seems to be some large gaps in agreement with the president.
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