Joe Biden is Officially In

Nothing to exciting since we knew this was coming, but his website is now updated.

Hillary Goes to Iowa, But the Reviews Are Mixed

The Washington Post has a story today about the mixed reaction that Hillary Clinton got in her first trip to Iowa in nearly three years this past weekend. The article also comments on just how wide open the race in Iowa is.

It seems that Hillary did win over some voters who go to see her be "warm" in small in home group gatherings in Iowa, but some voters were not enthused by her question answering sessions. Hillary avoided talking about Iraq at all and steered her comments toward her general support of the military...with no specifics on Iraq. This seemed to upset some voters.

The article also discusses that many Iowans see Barack Obama as the rock star, but are curious about his readiness and experience. My guess is if Obama can address this effectively he will walk away with this nomination, but he needs to start doing some talking about where he stands on the issues and how he will govern.

Even though John Edwards leads in the early polls in Iowa, the article discusses the fact that many voters do not feel enthusiastic about him. My thought behind this is that he is damaged goods that has not been able to win the nomination, or help the Kerry ticket win, before. Democratic voters want a clear and confident candidate that they know can win...they don't want to push another "best effort" to the front as a candidate.

So, with mixed reviews from the trip for Hillary we still don't know much, except that voters are taking their time to size up the candidates before they are ready to launch in and commit. Seems logical to me.

The Chorus on Obama

I am pretty sure that Barack Obama was prepared for all of the questions that he would face as he announced his decision to run for President. The chorus of questions and doubters has grown steadily over the past two weeks. To quickly sumamrize, here is what I am seeing and hearing the most:

* So far most of the press has been about the very blank resume that Barack has. People seem to be a little leary about his lack of experience. To be fair, Barack is pretty green and he has not yet done a great job of announcing where he stands on many issues. His website is one of only a handful of candidate websites that does not feature a section on issues. I imagine the website will be relaunched when he officially announces and hopefully he will have some detailed information as to where he stands on various issues. From reading his book I can get a pretty good grasp on where he stands broadly on most issues, but I would still like to hear some more specifics...but that is true of all of the candidates so far.

* There is an article on MSNBC today asking if Barack can really win the black vote. Currently black voters favor Hillary 3 to1 and John Edwards will also make a strong case for their votes as well. If Al Sharpton were to enter the race then he further splinters the votes. The article talks about how many blacks are impressed with Obama's ability to appeal to white voters (which they see as being crucial to actually electing a black president), but they are unsure who he is and who he represents. The article seems to argue that in order to win Barack can't be "black enough" as to endear himself to the black voting base without losing the important white support. I think that much like other voters, black voters are waiting to see what Obama stands for and is all about before they throw all of their support behind him.

* We have also already seen the negative attacks that Obama will face. So far these have centered around his name and his past history of attending a Muslim school when he was very young. There is really nothing but bigotry behind these types of attacks, but we all know that they are effective for some segments of voters out there.

I really hope to start seeing some more substance out of all of these campaigns soon, but for now they are in fundraising mode to see if they can even become competitive. With California, Michigan, Florida, New Jersey, and Illinois all looking to move up their primaries it may force the campaigns to rewrite strategies and think on the fly. That should result in some solid information coming soon.

For my part, I hope to start evaluating candidates on the issues on this website soon. I have set a target date of June 1st to select the candidate I will be working for. However, this could change based on dynamics, revelations, and my overall disposition at the time. Stay tuned.

BREAKING NEWS: KERRY WILL NOT RUN

Via CNN:

Wednesday, January 24, 2007 WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, will not run for the White House in 2008, two Democrats close to Kerry tell CNN. Kerry will take to the Senate floor this afternoon to announce his plans to forgo a run and will also send out an email to supporters telling them of his decision.

I will post links to his announcement after the official declaration. This was inevitable, he was damaged goods and could not compete with the rock stars already in the race.

Candidate Reactions to the State of the Union

Here is a random sampling of reactions to the state of the Union from some of the Democrats running for President.

Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Connecticut (Kerry also promised to introduce legislation)
"I'm heartened to hear the President speak about creating a sustainable energy independence plan, expanding health care access for the millions of Americans who are uninsured, tackling comprehensive immigration reform and ensuring educational success for all Americans...I remain steadfastly opposed to the President's plan for Iraq, sending thousands more of our nation's men and women into harm's way in a country in the midst of a civil war...Tomorrow in the Foreign Relations Committee, I will offer the legislation I introduced last week which limits troop levels in Iraq without new authorization by Congress in advance."

Former Sen. John Edwards, D-North Carolina (notice the dig on McCain...Edwards is fighting hard already!)
"President Bush's address tonight was heavy on rhetoric, but light on everything else. The American people said they wanted change and what they got was more of the same -- small ideas that won't make a difference in the lives of working Americans...President Bush's decision to adopt the McCain Doctrine and escalate the war in Iraq is terribly wrong. There is no military solution to this civil war. Instead of increasing the number of troops in Iraq, we should immediately withdraw 40-50,000 troops."

Gov. Bill Richardson, D-New Mexico (I like him more and more!)
"Welcome to the party, Mr. President, the rest of the country and the world have been talking and doing something about these issues for years. In addition to being years behind, what the President is proposing doesn't go far enough and isn't realistic...Ultimately we need a 'man-on-the moon' effort focused on energy independence. Anything less will not create the change necessary to make a lasting difference."

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York
"The President finally acknowledged the problem of global warming and the need to develop alternative energy sources, but he did not offer a real plan to deal with climate change or to put us on a path to energy independence. The President finally addressed the need to deal with the health care crisis, but offered a proposal that does nothing make health insurance more affordable or accessible for the millions of uninsured and underinsured Americans. The President called for No Child Left Behind to be reauthorized this year, but has failed to ensure the funding needed to fulfill the promise of this landmark law. And instead of charting a new course in Iraq, including the political solution desperately needed, so that we can begin to bring our troops home, the President continued his defense of failed strategy and his escalation plan in Iraq.

Moving Toward the National Primary

Most of this information comes from a nice post on Daily Kos.

The early primary calendar looks like this so far (number of delegates):


Iowa (39): 1/14
Nevada (22): 1/19
New Hampshire (19): 1/22
South Carolina (39): 1/29

Then on 2/5 (some of these may not be official yet): Alabama (45), Arizona (49), Arkansas (30), Delaware (13), Missouri (63), New Mexico (23), North Carolina (79), and Utah (20).

Now, with Florida (161) and California (322) looking to move up to Feb. 5, along with New Jersey (93) and Michigan (111), it looks like the national primary is effectively here.


This type of calendar will definately favor those that can raise tons of money quickly and may also help to produce a more national consensus candidate. Iowa and New Hampshire will no longer have the sole power in deciding the nominee early on. Some rumors also have Illinois looking to potentially move into the February 5th date as well. The mix of states is nice and should provide some very early answers as to who the nominee will be....then 6 months of waiting until the conventions!

Hillary Clinton says "SHOW ME THE MONEY!!"

Hillary Clinton confirmed yesterday that she will forego public financing of her primary and general election campaigns. She is the first candidate to do so. What does this mean?

If a candidate accepts public financing, the government gives them a certain amount of money for their campaign. The candidate then cannot raise more money from private donors then what the government has given them. By opting out of public financing a candidate can raise oodles of money to spend on brow beating their opponents with negative ads and yard signs. :-)

The last two elections have seen the death of public financing because of the outrageous costs associated with television ads in a national campaign. Most of the serious candidates will have to opt out of public financing if they hope to remain competitive in this wide open field.

Catch Your Breath: Bill Richardson is in

It really has been a whirlwind past two weeks as the presidential field became more and more clear. In case you missed it yesterday, Bill Richardson announced he would be running for president as well. I have to question his timing the day after Hillary. I mean, he is already a name not many people know, and then he announces right in the middle of the media storm over Hillary's announcement? Not the best move, but at least he is in.

At this point we are really only waiting to hear from Wes Clark and possibly John Kerry. Personally, I would be pretty intimidated by the field that is already announced if I were these two, but you just never know what people will do this early in the game.

Hillary Clinton Announces Candidacy Today

Hillary Clinton proclaims she "Is In" on her webpage. I amnot a fan but she is still a clear front runner and a historic entrant as the first possible female nominee from the major parties. Hopefully she will run with dignity.

Fox Uses Bigotry and Fear to Divide Again

This is the full text of an article appearing on Daily Kos. Some attention is being paid to the fact that as a young child Barack Obama attended a Muslim school. There is some dispute on if Clinton's campaign leaked the info:

The right-wing magazine Insight features a "report" that Hillary's people are digging up info that Obama attended an Islamic school as a child. The report reads like typical right-wing propaganda bullshit. I doubt the right has great sources inside the campaign of the person they've most trashed the past 15 years. But no smear is too ridiculous for Fox News to amplify.

This morning, Fox News featured a segment highlighting a right-wing report that Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) attended an Islamic “madrassa” school as a 6-year-old child. Fox & Friends host Steve Doocy pointed out that madrassas are “financed by Saudis” and “teach this Wahhabism which pretty much hates us,” then declared, “The big question is: was that on the curriculum back then?” Later, a caller to the show questioned whether Obama’s schooling means that “maybe he doesn’t consider terrorists the enemy.” Fox anchor Brian Kilmeade responded, “Well, we’ll see about that.” The Fox hosts failed to correct the false claim that Obama is Muslim. One caller, referring to Obama, said, “I think a Muslim would be fine in the presidency, better than Hillary. At least you know what the Muslims are up to.” Anchor Gretchen Carlson responded, “We want to be clear, too, that this isn’t all Muslims, of course, we would only be concerned about the kind that want to blow us up.”

Obama is Christian, a member of Chicago’s Trinity United Church of Christ since 1988. The hosts are trying to make it seem that Obama somehow hid this part of his life. Except that he hasn't.

From his book
Dreams of my Father:In Indonesia, I’d spent 2 years at a Muslim school, 2 years at a Catholic school. In the Muslim school, the teacher wrote to tell mother I made faces during Koranic studies. In the Catholic school, when it came time to pray, I’d pretend to close my eyes, then peek around the room. Nothing happened. No angels descended.

And in Audacity of Hope:
Without the money to go to the international school that most expatriate children attended, I went to local Indonesian schools and ran the streets with the children of farmers, servants, tailors, and clerks.

Remember, the primaries are less than a year away. And what a year it will be. It'll be non-stop bashing of blacks, women, Muslims, trial lawyers, and brown people south of the border. And the GOP's hatred for anyone who isn't a privileged (by birth) white male will be in full display.
With Iraq burning out of control, the GOP senses its imminent 2008 disaster. It's a cornered, wounded animal with little chance of escape. And those are the most dangerous of all.

Kos is right on with his assessment of the GOP and their rapidly crumbling chances at relevance in 2008. I really hope the part about Clinton is not true. I would hate to see Dems resort to Republican smear tactics of using racial biases and ignorance to try to scare voters...however I won't put it past a desperate candidate such as Clinton, who has banked on being the clear front runner and is now playing second fiddle to a more likeable candidate. To be sure Clinton is a cold-blooded political soul and will do what it takes to make her case, which is one of the reasons I think she will not have a shot at landing the nomination.

Zogby Polls

Zogby Polls of Iowa and New Hampshire for both parties....he includes Condi Rice for the Republicans...not sure why.

IOWA
1/15-16. Caucus voters. MoE 4.6% (No trend lines)

Democrats
Edwards 27
Obama 17
Clinton 16
Vilsack 16

Republicans
Giuliani 19
McCain 17
Gingrich 13
Rice 9
Romney 5


NEW HAMPSHIRE
1/15-16. Caucus Primary voters. MoE 4.6% (No trend lines)

Democrats
Obama 23
Clinton 19
Edwards 19
Kerry 5

Republicans
McCain 26
Giuliani 20
Romney 13
Rice 7
Gingrich 6

Early Polls

It is so super early, but it is interesting to take a look at a couple of early polls...if nothing else but to show that Hillary really has some work to do if she is really to be considered the early front runner.

A new poll from Rasmussen that measured from 1/8-1/11 (before Obama announced), MoE 5%:

(Parenthesis are results from last poll, 11/8-12/4)

Clinton 22 (34)
Obama 21 (17)
Edwards 15 (9)
Gore 7 (9)
Kerry 4 (3)
Biden 4 (3)
(Crosstabs not available yet, so no updated numbers on the following:)
Clark ? (3)
Vilsack ? (1)
Richardson ? (1)
Other ? (7)
Not sure ? (15)

Most surprising is how far Hillary fell off from the last poll, leaving her and Obama in a virtual dead heat. This was before he announced as well. My guess is this kind of fall means that she will have to declare soon to try and get some of the heavy news about Obama to die down and get some press herself.


The second poll is the January Straw Poll from Daily Kos. This poll can be significant because Kos is a site that caters to a crowd that is a bit more left and progressive, which are people that campaign hard, donate online, and come out to vote in primaries. If you follow the link it shows the trend from several months of polling from even 2005.

Jan
Edwards 35
Obama 28
Clark 17
Richardson 5
H. Clinton 4
Biden 1
Kerry 1
Vilsack 0
Dodd 0
Gravel 0

Update: Zogby has his first poll of Iowa, but be warned that caucuses are very hard to poll.

Edwards 27
Obama 17
Vilsack 16
Clinton 16
Biden 3
Kerry 3
Kucinich 1
Richardson 1
Unsure 13

Obama Creates Exploratory Committee, Final Decision to Come in Illinois on February 10th

Barack Obama has announced today that he is forming an exploratory committee for a run for President. While not an official announcement, it is in fact a likely sign that he will decide to run. Barack has posted a video on his website which you can watch here, explaining his choice.

He states that he will spend the next few weeks talking to people and listening to what they have to say, and then will appear in Illinois on February 10th to announce his plans and his vision. Sure as heck sounds like he is in! I have stated before that I am excited to see what Obama has to offer and consider him a top candidate. Once we know what he is up to it will probably force Hillary to enter the race soon.

Also in the news today Bill Richardson says he will announce his intentions before the end of the month.

Update: Here is a link to a great article about the shrewdness of Obama in only announcing his exploratory committee with another announcement about his final decision. For now, I am putting Obama in the running category.

Hillary and Edwards Exchange Barbs

The New York Post has the summary of a veiled attack on Clinton by Edwards, and a strong rebuttal directly at Edwards from Clinton. The article makes some interesting points that are worth considering:

Clinton's full-blown response to Edwards signals that her team considers him a top-tier threat. He has been touring the country ever since his 2004 defeat as Sen. John Kerry's vice-presidential running mate. The former North Carolina senator has topped polls in Iowa, home of the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Clinton now faces a double-barreled threat from two charismatic contenders, Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

Although Edwards and Clinton both gave the same vote to authorize the war in Iraq, it is Edwards that has been the more outspoken critic of the war now. Hillary has been much more moderate and has closely watched her criticism of the war in order to boost her hawk credentials. Edwards has recanted for his original vote while Hillary has not said her vote was a mistake.

Even Earlier Debates

I had previously noted the early debate in South Carolina in April. Last week it was announced that CNN will be hosting and airing debates in New Hampshire on April 4th and 5th. The entire nominating process seems to move earlier and earlier with debates starting sooner and a number of states jockeying to move their primaries closer to Iowa and New Hampshire so that their voters can have a say in choosing the candidates.

Does a national primary day begin to make sense? Maybe. A future post will address the topic.

A Look At Things On The Right

I won't spend a lot of time focusing on the Republican candidates, but there are going to be other folks that track the progress. Chuck Todd at the National Journal gives a break down of how the Republican field looks right now.

Obama To Announce Candidacy Wednesday on Oprah?

So far, that is the rumor that is circulating. An interesting choice of place to announce a candidacy, but also a powerful place. In my mind if he decides to run he probably becomes the early front runner. Stay tuned.

Where The Candidates Stand: Volume One

Poster Rob has asked that I spend some time talking about where I see the chances of the candidates currently, and where my current thoughts lie about the candidates. Luckily I was headed toward this post eventually anyway and we will just call it the first installation of what will be a periodic update on where they stand and how I am feeling about them.

I think first of all it is important to point out that this decision was almost non-existent. During last spring I got pulled into the website and work of former governor of Virginia Mark Warner. I started doing some initial planning and legwork in Iowa for the upstart movement that was attempting to influence Mark Warner to run for President. I really liked Mark Warner and if he had decided to enter the race he would have been my candidate, and I really believe he had the solid credentials that would have lifted him toward the nomination. Now I hope that he is considering running for the Senate in Virginia in 2008.

That aside, I shall break down the candidates into four tiers: No Chance, Long Shots, On the Brink, and Rock Stars. I shall then post some thoughts on each candidate relating to their chances and how I feel about them so far in the process.

No Chance (Candidates that just don't have the backing or electability)

Michael Gravel: These are really the type of candidates you have to love and want to pull for. Individuals that have worked hard, are not beholden to anyone, and say exactly what they think. I must admit that I had never even heard of him until recently. I do like some of his ideas, but realistically he is a no go.

Dennis Kucinich: I really like this guy from Ohio and all of his anti-war vigor. He takes beatings like no one else and keeps bouncing back to stay on message. This is another one of those candidates that makes so much noise that they help shape some parts of the debate. Kucinich's message about the war in Iraq represent a pretty strong voice in America, even though he is ultimately unelectable. In the last election he advocated for a Department of Peace, which I think is a neat idea. However, I was also turned off by his political posturing during the Iowa Caucuses of 2004 when he made a deal to swing his votes to John Edwards if he did not reach critical mass in each precinct. At that time Kucinich and Edwards were on different ends of the war spectrum and in my mind if Kucinich was going to swing votes to anyone it should have been Howard Dean.

Al Sharpton: Yeah, he just doesn't have the mass appeal to be a serious candidate.

Chris Dodd: A lot of press was given in the last election to the difficulties that Senators have had recently in running for President. It seems that the electorate much prefers to elect Governors that have experience with running a state, which they may seem as comparable to the administrative job of running the nation. Dodd is the first of several current Senators that are considering a run for the White House. Unlike some of the other Senators running, Dodd is not a name that many households would recognize. His career of service is good. I have not heard enough of his message to size him up and honestly I think he is a long shot.

Long Shots (Candidates that have a chance, but have some big hurdles)

Tom Vilsack: The former Governor of Iowa. Vilsack is a clear centrist and head of the Democratic Leadership Council which is a very moderate organization (some say to conservative) wing of the Democratic Party. In fact it was the DLC that Howard Dean was referencing in 2004 when he stated that he came "from the Democratic wing of the Democratic party". Vilsack is a champion of education and has been extremely popular during his tenure in Iowa. He has the common sense values and a pretty outgoing nature. He faces the huge task of folks not knowing who he is or much about him. His biggest advantage is being from Iowa and being popular in the state, although he still trails the big names in polling in the state. I like Vilsack, but I like him much better as a possible VP candidate (he was on the very short list in 2004) or to run for Senate should Tom Harkin decide to retire before 2008. He must win in Iowa to have a realistic shot, otherwise it is all over. I expect him to pull out in the fall if he is not polling well in Iowa at that time. I got a soft spot in my heart for the Governor of my former state, but realistically I just don't know if he has the kind of inspirational fire I am looking for.

Joe Biden: We talked about Joe Biden in an earlier post so I won't sum up to much. He may be a stronger candidate then I give him credit for, he has pretty much been saying he was going to run since the end of the 2004 campaign. He has some solid credentials in the Senate and is pretty hawkish for a Democrat, which might appeal to some voters. I think he still has a long way to go to climb through, but if the field does not pull some of the rock stars in, he could be a surprise that moves up.

John Kerry: Kerry has the money assembled and the name recognition to launch another campaign in 2008. He even has some noterity in early polls, but so did Joe Lieberman going into 2004. The simple fact is that Kerry could not beat a very unpopular President at the one time he should have been beaten. I don't think the public will embrace Kerry again, especially if we see Clinton or Obama enter the race. His record has been put out on display, so in that regard he is a pretty known commodity. The fact that he made another big slip up with his troop joke before the 2006 mid-terms probably was the last nail in his already rapidly closing coffin. I hope he decides not to run, but with all of his money and fame he may decide to jump back in there. An already lame and damaged candidate is not what we need in 2008.

On The Brink (These candidates have the potential to vault into the upper tier)

Wesley Clark: If Clark had decided to enter the race in 2004 a bit ealier he might have been able to generate some real support and might have ended up challenging Kerry more then he did. Wesley Clark continues to be a candidate that gets a lot of attention because of his obvious military background. At a time of war and uncertainity with Islamist extremists it is the only natural that voters may want someone with strong foreign/military experience. Clark fits the bill, but does not seem to have the easy affability that makes him highly electable. On the flipside he does also does not carry the stodgy military personality that you may see in other career military men. Personally I would have liked to see Clark do more in the interim since 2004 to increase his governing credentials. Yes he would be a strong voice on security, but do I really feel like he is someone that will promote a strong domestic agenda? If he is able to put together some opinions on his domestic plans, learns to be a bit more charming, and the war in Iraq continues to be a mess, he could gain some traction. He seems to be well admired and favored by large portions of the liberal on-line contingent, which could bolster his already moderate appeal.

Bill Richardson: He has quite a bit of positives stacked in his corner. He has effectively managed a small state, but a state that is very racially diverse and is dealing with one of the hot button issues of 2008, immigration and illegal entry. He has been the head of the Governor's Association where he was able to help pick up Governorships in 2006. He also has been involved in lots of diplomatic efforts, most recently with Sudan, but also with North Korea. He has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize four times for his humanitarian efforts with hostage release. He served in Congress for 15 year, was the Ambassador to the UN, and was Secretary of Energy. The more I learn about him the more I like him. He also is another candidate that would come from an under represented group, Latinos. The increasingly growing population of Latino citizens and issues that directly impact them, could be a huge factor in driving his ability to make early traction. Now that Nevada is one of the lead-off states in the nominating process he could make a big splash early on. If California ends up bumping their primary into February (which they are considering) he could score some more early gains. He is one I am keeping a close eye on.

Rock Stars (The top tier, people already with a huge edge and great buzz)

Hillary Clinton: One thing I know for sure. I will not be supporting Hillary Clinton in the primary process. She may eventually emerge as the nominee and at that time I will throw myself under the bus for her if need be. Two maini reasons lead me to say this. First of all, my own view of American politics is that it should be representative of the common man as much as possible, it should be fluid, and it should not be dominated by small groups of elites. I love Bill Clinton. I have not been fond of the Bush family. I personally think it is time to break the cylce of occupation of the White House by only two families in this country. By the time 2008 rolls around a Bush or Clinton will have been in the White House for 20 years. I just really don't want to see that continue for another 4-8years. I think it is time for a fresh change of ideas! The second reason is that ultimately I do not feel Hillary is electable against a Republican candidate (unless they put up a big right winger like Brownback). Fairly or unfairly Hillary carries a lot of baggage and animosity from many general election voters. She also is not loved by the left-wing, progressive block. Her move toward being more of a moderate (reaching out to Republicans, adjusting her stand on the issues, etc.) pissed off the left-wing and likely made general election voters question her even more (the flip flopper syndrome). Still, she is a formidable Senator that has done well to pad and enhance her resume. All of her dirty laundry is out there, so people know what they are getting. I think it will be interesting to see her go head to head with the other candidates and how she is received in some states out there. I really don't think she will come through with the nomination, but she clearly has the most early buzz and support in a nationwide look.

Barack Obama: No one is bigger then Barack right now...he actually is the rock star of the group right now and he has not even announced if he is running. The key moment for Obama was delivering the Keynote address at the 2004 Conventions, which you can watch here. It launched him from state senator into the stratosphere. His easy going demeanor and inspirational tone allow folks to believe in him, which is a rare thing in politics these days. He carries common sense philosophy and the concerns of the common man which allow people to relate to him. He is well spoken and humble. These alone have gotten him this far, but it will be his developing experience and vision for the future that help shape where his campaign may go. In many ways he is the anti-Hillary for Democrats that are not sure about her electability. He is raw, he is unproven, and he lacks a lot of significant experience. His supporters will say he mirrors another raw politician from Illinois, Abraham Lincoln, who overcame inexperience to lead the nation. I must confess I really like Obama because in the end I want to be insprired and believe in someone. I am reading his book, The Audacity of Hope, right now and am enjoying his candor and insight. I think he is someone that seeks to unite around commonalities rather then tear down over simple differences. I worry about his lack of experience and his past has some checkered bits (cocaine use) that will be easy fodder for oponents. He has a young family and I expect he will make his decision by the end of this month. He is one of my top choices right now simply because I am already buying into his vision of what America can be. His flirtations with running have changed the landscape and may force Hillary to declare her candidacy much sooner then she would have liked to.

John Edwards: No candidate is more favored by the current setup of primaries then John Edwards. He is leading in early polling in Iowa and has spent tons of time in the state since 2004. Add his birth state of South Carolina into the first four and all of a sudden you have the possibility that Edwards could win two of the first four contests. If he shows well or wins New Hampshire and Nevada he could be on his way to a quick nomination. Edwards carries the populist appeal that many moderate voters are looking for in elections. He also carries the name recognition from the 2004 campaign. He is very easy going, easy on the eyes, and is a great campaigner. He has a wife that people love and has a great story (son of a mill worker). He is from a Southern state and brings that appeal that might be beneficial in helping win a state like Virginia or North Carolina. The knock on Edwards in 2004 was his level of experience and that has not changed that much, but he carries the populist torch. He has been quick to critcize the war in Iraq and admit that he regrets his vote to authorize the vote. I like Edwards okay, but something has always bugged me about him that I cannot put my finger on.

The Wild Card

Al Gore: The 800 pound gorilla that could shake up the whole race and make things very interesting. He says that he is not interested and will sit out this election. He has been using the last four years to promote his global warming concerns and has refocused himself after losing the 2000 election. Gore is someone that many Dems might flock to if he were to enter the race because he is almost seen as the "elder statesman" of the party. He is Mr. Vice President and he actually got more popular vote then George Bush. It might be his time to come back in. The scenario I envision is this: Obama decides not to enter and Hillary runs. By September no one is in love with the candidates that the Dems have to offer...in swoops Al Gore who can raise buckets of money quickly and with his new energy could explode things into an exciting frenzy. I liked Al Gore in 2000 and I like who he has become since then even more.

Those are the candidates in my perspective as things stand today. Lots will happen to shake things up. A Long Shot or No Chance could come from nowhere...who would have predicted what Howard Dean was able to do. Of the candidates, I really like four (Gore, Edwards, Obama, and Richardson) but that could change as I learn more about each of the candidates and hear what they have to say. I am hoping some will soon come swinging through Wisconsin so that I can see them in person...for this reason I miss Iowa. Being in that state is like instant access to presidential candidates.

Denver Picked to Host the 2008 Democratic National Convention

After several terse months of hand ringing over the decision, the DNC announced today that Denver will host the Convention in 2008. Big concerns over planning and labor had soured the DNC on choosing Denver, but the other alternative (New York) refused to cover the costs of the convention. The city I was pulling for (Minneapolis) withdrew their bid once the Republicans picked the city for their convention.

I have never been to Denver but I am sure it will be a great city to host the convention. The West is playing an increasingly larger role in the Democrats electorate body and it will be nice to be out West for the convention. One of my goals through my political involvement is to actually make it to the convention as a delegate (or at least as an observer).

Chris Dodd Officially Enters The Race

So, there I am two days ago working on the summary post of all the candidates and what I think about them. I write under Chris Dodd "I will be surprised if he actually enters the race." Then this morning Christopher Dodd declared his candidacy.

Personally I think he is a long shot, especially when you have to call yourself the "dark horse" candidate, but you never know what might happen.

Some highligts of Dodd:

Dodd’s career in Washington began in 1974 when he was elected to the House in the wake of the Watergate scandal. His father, Thomas J. Dodd, served two terms in the Senate; the younger Dodd won a Senate seat in 1980.Dodd has forged strong ties with labor unions, advocated fiscal accountability for corporations and championed education and other children’s issues. This month, he became chairman of the influential Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee and is a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Dodd voted in 2002 to authorize military intervention in Iraq, but has become an outspoken critic of the war and now calls his vote a mistake. He has said he would oppose an escalation of U.S. forces in Iraq and has said Congress should consider
withholding funding for such a troop increase.Dodd has been politically active on behalf of other Democrats, raising money and campaigning for candidates across the country and headed the Democratic National Committee from 1995-96.

Dodd and his wife, Jackie Marie Clegg, have two daughters, age 5 and 22 months.

Lesser Known Candidate Michael Gravel

In order to be most fair and dutiful in reporting the candidates that are out there for President I will do my best to identify all of the candidates big or small that are getting into the race. One such candidate the declared very early in 2006 is former Senator Michael Gravel of Alaska.

I have added a link to the Gravel for President website so you can do some of your own research, but here are some of his thoughts on the issues to chew on.

• funding education as the top priority it must be in a democracy; repealing the Electoral College;
• enacting term limits at the federal level;
• reforming Social Security by putting real money in the Trust Fund, investing it properly and identifying the interests of individual beneficiaries so that they can leave their surplus in the fund to their heirs;
• enacting a universal health care system covering all Americans from birth to death; rebuilding our gridlocked transportation system and our crumbling national infrastructure;
• repealing the income tax and closing down the IRS replacing it with a Fair Tax (with a pre-bate for necessities) that will reverse the flight of jobs and capital abroad (the ensuing economic growth that the Fair Tax will induce will pay for my program for health care, education and a new national infrastructure);
• launching and leading a massive global scientific effort to end energy dependence on oil and integrating the world’s scientific community to this task,
• taking responsibility and mitigating our nation’s impact on the world’s environment; and
  organizing and leading an intelligence and police organization of willing nations, similar to NATO, to root out terrorism and addressing its causes through aggressive diplomacy.
  

Al Sharpton May Be In

“I do believe the Democratic party has moved far to the right. I do believe that the party has a bunch of elephants running around in donkey clothes.”

"George Bush giving tax cuts is like Jim Jones giving Kool-Aid. It tastes good but it'll kill you."

"I wanted to say to Governor Dean, don't be hard on yourself about hooting and hollering. If I had spent the money you did and got 18 percent, I'd still be in Iowa hooting and hollering."

That's right, the man with the golden one-liner is reportedly considering running for president in 2008. Al Sharpton brought some of these great lines to the debate in 2004 before bowing out of the race. At this point I would consider him another long shot...but I am working up a post on my thoughts about where the potentials stand right now, so stay tuned. In the meantime we will add Al Sharpton to the mix of possible candidates. The story from CNN below:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Civil rights activist Al Sharpton said Monday he is seriously considering a run for president. "I don't hear any reason not to," Sharpton, 52, said in an interview during an urban affairs conference sponsored by another civil rights leader, the Rev. Jesse Jackson. "If we're talking about the urban agenda, can you tell me anybody else in the field who's representing that right now?" Sharpton asked. "We clearly have a reason to run, and whether we do it or not we'll see over the next couple of months." Sharpton mounted a long-shot bid for the White House in 2004, in which his wit and fiery denunciation of President Bush often enlivened Democratic primary debates. He dropped out of the race after losing several state primaries and endorsed the eventual nominee, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. Despite widespread interest in the likely candidacy of another influential black Democrat, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, Sharpton said he's heard little substantive discussion of issues that might influence his decision about running.

First Democratic Debate Scheduled: April 26, 2007

The event will be hosted in South Carolina at South Carolina State University, many of the details are very nicely covered in this blog entry. The candidates will be making appearances and crossing paths before this time, but this will be the first big "official" event bringing the declared few together. The bigger question will be if the big hitters (Gore, Obama, Hillary) have announced their intentions by this time. Stay tuned.

Joe Biden is Officially In

For those of you that may have missed Meet The Press this morning, Joe Biden became the fourth openly declared candidate for the Democrats. Here is the link to the quick recap. The main highlight of the MSNBC article in my opinion:

“I have reached the tentative conclusion that a significant portion of this administration, maybe even including the vice president, believes Iraq is lost,” Biden told The Washington Post. “They have no answer to deal with how badly they have screwed it up. I am not being facetious now. Therefore, the best thing to do is keep it from totally collapsing on your watch and hand it off to the next guy — literally not figuratively.”

Joe Biden has run for President once before in 1988, when his campaign was effectively derailed because of charges of plagarism in his speeches. Seems that he borrowed heavily from speeches given by British Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock, including details of Kinnock's life that were not applicable to Biden's own life. An aide to Michael Dukakis pointed out the issue to the media and Biden's bid was over.

Biden is the new incoming chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has some solid foreign credentials. However, at this time I have to list his candidacy in the long shot column. I will get his websites updated once his official campaign site launches.

Richardson Heads to Sudan

Bill Richardson, the current governor of New Mexico, is an interesting candidate to keep an eye on. He really could be a sleeper candidate for the Dems if he does indeed decide to run. With all of the attention that a Hillary or Obama would get, it would be something to see the first serious Latino candidate for president. He is an interesting choice considering the last few elected Democrats have been governors from Southern States. Now to be sure, New Mexico is not a Southern state, but the West is becoming an important political election ground and Richardson is wildly popular. This story was reported today by CNN:

WASHINGTON -- New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said Thursday he is heading to Sudan on a diplomatic trip that would add to his extensive international experience as he prepares to announce whether he will run for president. Richardson will try to meet with Sudanese officials and persuade them to accept a peacekeeping force in the war-torn Darfur region, according to a statement from his office. He is to arrive Sunday after traveling overnight and plans to travel to Darfur. Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, has rejected a U.N. Security Council resolution that provides for bolstering the poorly funded and equipped 7,000-troop African Union force to about 22,000 peacekeepers under U.N. leadership. The nonprofit Save Darfur Coalition requested Richardson's help because of his long relationship with Bashir and is paying for the trip. Richardson, a Democrat who was U.N. ambassador and energy secretary in the Clinton administration, would have one of the most impressive foreign policy resumes if he decides to run for president.

So Much Information, So Little Time

One of the aspects of this blog that I hope to provide is a link to interesting information. As you can see on the right of the page I have listed links to the webpages of all of the candidates that have declared their candidacy, are rumored to be thinking about a candidacy, or have pretty clearly stated that they will not run (although they still might enter!). Many of these candidates have great websites for the political campaigns, PACs, or declared bids. I will be joining the mailing lists of all of these candidates and reporting back any interesting information that I get sent to me so that you can check it out...hey, it might be the only way you find out important information about the Dennis Kucinich campaign!!!!

The Beginning of the Year, the Beginning of the Journey!

Welcome to my newest blogging project, one that I hope will be interesting for you, informational for you, and also fun for you! The new year of 2007 has officially started which means that the presidential campaign for the 2008 election will soon begin in earnest...in fact there are already several candidates in the mix even as you are reading this. The purpose of this blog is to chronicle my personal journey through the exploration of candidates, the choosing of a primary candidate that I will actively get involved with, and the final selection of the candidates and election in November of 2008.

First of, a few things about me and what you will and won't see here. To clear the air first thing, I am a tried and true Democrat, so this blog will be exploring my vetting and selection of a Democratic candidate. I may at times talk about what is going on with the Republican side, but if you are looking for someone who is choosing amoung those folks, you might want to try a different place.

I am a 28 year old white male living in southern Wisconsin, where I have lived for about 7 months. Previously I lived in the state of Iowa for four years, where I spent time getting involved in local politics as well as volunteering for the Howard Dean campaign during the Iowa Caucuses of 2004. After Dean's defeat I went on to volunteer for the John Kerry campaign. I am married and have two young boys along with a 3 year old beagle. I work for a state university in Wisconsin. My wife is a stay at home mom right now, but previously was a high school English teacher. We own a home, are not veterans, attend church weekly, and shop at Wal Mart nearly 3 times a week!!! I consider myself to be a pretty typical middle class voter.

Politics is addicting for me and I someday hope to run for public office. In the meantime I spend my time researching candidates and issues and volunteering any little free time I do have for campaigns. This blog will be another healthy way to talk about all that is going on.

I will be optimistic and open minded about all of the candidates as I begin to review them. We will track announcements and potential entrance of all of the players. I will try to provide links to campaign information. I hope that some of you will be willing to comment and engage in dialogue about what is going on out there.

With that said, keep checking back as I get the site whipped into shape! Let's go blue in 2008!!