Shaking Hands with Bill Clinton

Being an Iowan is a unique perogative on a lot of things. Corn and pork dominate the state so agriculture is huge. The state is very WASP'y with some small pockets of diversity thrown in here and there. We have the Field of Dreams, the Herbert Hoover Presidential Library, and the world's largest wooden nickel.

However, nothing compares to the experience you get as an Iowan every four years when it is time to select candidates for President. Iowans probably take for granted the unrivaled access they get to candidates. They feign interest and complain about all the telephone calls, but then they get special moments like I got today.

50 feet. That is how far I was from the stage at Hillary Clinton's campaign rally. 50 feet from #42 Bill Clinton and his wife. Perhaps one of the most iconic political couples in American history. The experience was akin to a rock concert (also used for the Obama experience, although this crowd was probably only 1/3 of the crowd Obama pulled here). Hillary's speech was nothing special, she does not inspire. However, Bill Clinton was different, even with only 5 minutes. It is something to watch a born politician work. You could tell that Bill Clinton still had "it" and could sell "it" if he needed too. Sure his presence on the campaign trail indicates the Hillary campaign is concerned about surging Obama fundraising. Sure he was kept on a leash in order not to upstage his ordinary partner. But Bill Clinton is still a huge draw. The crowd clammored to be near him.

I was struck by one scene after Bill had spoken and stepped off the stage when an elderly woman reached out to give him a kiss on the cheek. Bill gave her a big hug and kissed her on the hand and then lingered by the rail holding on to the woman's hand. She simply stood there listening to Hillary stroking and patting Bill's hand...clearly comforted by someone that she had obviously deeply connected with in his time in power, even though she had clearly never met him. It was a striking portrait of the humanity that Bill Clinton had/has. The end of his Presidency stripped away some of his humanity but this small portrait demonstrated why he remains popular, and why someone so distantly removed from the common man, like George Bush, struggles so much with the "common man" image.

At any rate, after Hillary was done droning I was able to shoot from my seat and find a good chink in the line so I could get up close...and then I got the chance to shake the hand and look square into the eyes of some one who is an extrordinary man. Bill Clinton had a firm but gentle shake and was a bit damp from the humidity and pressing the flesh with the masses, but you could still see a fire and energy in his eyes. The experience was vastly better then shaking hands and staring into the lifeless eyes of John Kerry in 2004. Bill Clinton simply oozes humanity. He repeatedly said to the crowd, "I am happy to be here, now go work hard for Hillary", or other similar coments that seemed to take the focus off of him and onto his partner. The man is still class to me, and today will go down as a memorable one in my life.

Iowans are lucky and take for granted these moments. The chance to rub elbows with heros and charlatans and make the decisions about who is worthy to proceed is one that should not be taken lightly. But damn isn't it easy to get lost in the glitz of someone like Bill Clinton.

Night #1 in the Obama Campaign Headquarters

My first round of volunteer help was delayed a few days due to work, but I did make it in last night for my first round of assisting in making calls for the Obama campaign. I had some great observations and experiences in the office.

I was able to help out for 2 hours last night, from 6pm to 8pm. I got there and was greeted by one of the interns working on the campaign. She walked me through the script that they were using for the night for my segment. Recently the campaign had sent brochures and DVD's to Iowa Democratic caucus goers and we were doing follow up calls to these folks to see if they had watched the biographical video and if they had any questions. We were also soliciting where people stood in terms of candidate support with 6 months until the caucus. There was another group of callers calling Dems in the next town over to tell them about an informational meeting that was coming up and inviting them to attend if possible. The office is small, but last night there were 10 volunteers making calls, and another 6-10 that had been out all day (in 90 degree heat) doing door to door canvassing.

Calling during the hours I did is hit or miss as it is dinner time and already busy for folks enjoying summer. I was able to place 89 calls during my two hours...but only made 12 "contacts" or people I was actually able to follow the script with. The rest of the calls were wrong numbers, not homes, or busy signals. Most of my list was populated with college students who had their college addresses listed and obviously were not still on-campus...another voting block difficult to track. Of the 12 folks I got to talk to, 10 were solid undecideds and not leaning toward any particular candidate. The other two were solid Obama supporters, so that was nice. I also was able to solicit one name to help volunteer with the campaign, which is always a great thing.

Overall it was a great time. Lots of volunteers and dinner was provided with more people calling in to help keep the volunteers fed. Being there has a way of sucking you into more helping. I am going to do more calls tomorrow and Monday, working tables at the Jazz Festival in town on Friday, and marching in the 4th of July parade...call me a junkie I guess.

On a related note, I will be updating my Where The Candidates stand piece this weekend once we have a better idea of what the second quarter fundraising looks like. Look for all of the Dems to post some nice numbers. I predict that a fourth candidate will be entering the top tier after this weekend...a name I kept hearing on some of the other calls in the office last night that people are excited about supporting...Gov. Bill Richardson.

Return of the Iowawineguy and Updates From The Field!

That's right, my relocation is nearly complete and I am now alive and well and working back in the state of Iowa, thus Greg the Wisconsin Democrat has become iowawineguy once again. I am currently living in a residence hall on the campus of the University of Iowa until I close on my new home in Coralville on July 6th. The job is going great and is a great breath of fresh air.

Something else smells great here too...the smell of caucus politics! Thick cut pork chops, the Field of Dreams, corn, and first in the nation Presidential voting...Iowa has it all!

I hope to be able to bring you better coverage from the the front lines of the 2008 campaign, at least from the GOOD side. I might even get motivated to go check out the GOP folks if they get close enough...Lord knows there will be plenty of seating...

Tonight I went to the field office for Barack Obama here in Iowa City. The office is in a large cluster of offices in a building in downtown, and is approximately 6 offices down from the Hillary Clinton field office. I got to meet several volunteers tonight as well as the county coordinator and volunteer coordinator Chris. I got a quick tour around the office, which is fairly small, changed my voter registration, signed a caucus pledge card for Obama (I really hope Gore doesn't get in the race now!), signed up for phone bank shifts and took myself a bumper sticker!

My initial impressions are very positive. Based on my experience with the Dean campaign in 2003, the Obama group already seems more organized and off to a better start. Of course Dean had a much harder road to hoe then Obama does these days. Chris said that they were having a large influx of volunteers, many of whom were young and had never done campaigns before (much like Dean). Most interesting was that they were getting a huge flood of high school volunteers, which was a new phenomenon to manage...lots of young people signing pledge cards in anticipation of their 18th birthday...remember these folks don't get polled!

The office already had numerous ways for me to get involved: upcoming July 4th parades, community summer events where they would have tables, canvassing, and phone banking.

Tomorrow night is my first round of phone banking, and I will be sure to report back after to let you know how it goes!

Of Many Things

The last two days my head has been swimming with the news and follow up that the elected Democratic Congressional majority is giving up the fight to end the war in Iraq and give George Bush, the great Liar, a blank check to continue this futile and costly war. Clearly Democrats were given the houses of Congress with a clear mandate to end this mess in Iraq and instead of working to do so, they have rolled over and given in...and at the same time ignored once again the will of the electorate. Maybe they will have a better shot come September when the next round of reports come, but my gut tells me this war will not end while George Bush is still in the White House unless funding is cut for the war. The Repbulicans are too strong in standing together so far.

Honestly, I have lost a lot of faith in the Democrats in Congress, and especially with the leadership. It is time for the ineffective Harry Reid to be replaced as Senate majority leader. He just does not have the stones to get the job done in the face of a tough adversary. Nanyc Pelosi...meh. Who knows. But if these leaders cannot get the caucus whipped into shape then they should be replaced for someone that will fight for the will of the electorate.

All of this also has me sizing up the candidates again and really wondering who I should be supporting in this mess. Only John Edwards and Chris Dodd have taken firm stands on ending this war now and they are starting to look like visionary messengers to me. I want to see Obama take the hardline of what is right...and for me what is right is getting the hell out of Iraq and focusing on real problems. So my choices are shaken and I am left doing a lot of evaluating.

Keith Olbermann has become a powerful voice for reason and progressive values on his evening telecast and he issued a scathing indictment to Bush and the Democrats last night. The value is greatest when you view the video, but I will post the text here. I remain, completely frustrated.

A Special Comment about the Democrats’ deal with President Bush to continue financing this unspeakable war in Iraq—and to do so on his terms:

Few men or women elected in our history—whether executive or legislative, state or national—have been sent into office with a mandate more obvious, nor instructions more clear: Get us out of Iraq.
Yet after six months of preparation and execution—half a year gathering the strands of public support; translating into action, the collective will of the nearly 70 percent of Americans who reject this War of Lies, the Democrats have managed only this:
The Democratic leadership has surrendered to a president—if not the worst president, then easily the most selfish, in our history—who happily blackmails his own people, and uses his own military personnel as hostages to his asinine demand, that the Democrats “give the troops their money”; The Democratic leadership has agreed to finance the deaths of Americans in a war that has only reduced the security of Americans; The Democratic leadership has given Mr. Bush all that he wanted, with the only caveat being, not merely meaningless symbolism about benchmarks for the Iraqi government, but optional meaningless symbolism about benchmarks for the Iraqi government.

The Democratic leadership has, in sum, claimed a compromise with the Administration, in which the only things truly compromised, are the trust of the voters, the ethics of the Democrats, and the lives of our brave, and doomed, friends, and family, in Iraq.You, the men and women elected with the simplest of directions—Stop The War—have traded your strength, your bargaining position, and the uniform support of those who elected you… for a handful of magic beans. You may trot out every political cliché from the soft-soap, inside-the-beltway dictionary of boilerplate sound bites, about how this is the “beginning of the end” of Mr. Bush’s “carte blanche” in Iraq, about how this is a “first step.”Well, Senator Reid, the only end at its beginning... is our collective hope that you and your colleagues would do what is right, what is essential, what you were each elected and re-elected to do.Because this “first step”… is a step right off a cliff.

And this President! How shameful it would be to watch an adult... hold his breath, and threaten to continue to do so, until he turned blue.But how horrifying it is… to watch a President hold his breath and threaten to continue to do so, until innocent and patriotic Americans in harm’s way, are bled white.You lead this country, sir? You claim to defend it? And yet when faced with the prospect of someone calling you on your stubbornness—your stubbornness which has cost 3,431 Americans their lives and thousands more their limbs—you, Mr. Bush, imply that if the Democrats don’t give you the money and give it to you entirely on your terms, the troops in Iraq will be stranded, or forced to serve longer, or have to throw bullets at the enemy with their bare hands.How transcendentally, how historically, pathetic. Any other president from any other moment in the panorama of our history would have, at the outset of this tawdry game of political chicken, declared that no matter what the other political side did, he would insure personally—first, last and always—that the troops would not suffer. A President, Mr. Bush, uses the carte
blanche he has already, not to manipulate an overlap of arriving and departing Brigades into a ‘second surge,’ but to say in unequivocal terms that if it takes every last dime of the monies already allocated, if it takes reneging on government contracts with Halliburton, he will make sure the troops are safe—even if the only safety to be found, is in getting them the hell out of there. Well, any true President would have done that, Sir. You instead, used our troops as political pawns, then blamed the Democrats when you did so.

Not that these Democrats, who had this country’s support and sympathy up until 48 hours ago, have not since earned all the blame they can carry home.“We seem to be very near the bleak choice between war and shame,” Winston Churchill wrote to Lord Moyne in the days after the British signed the Munich accords with Germany in 1938. “My feeling is that we shall choose shame, and then have war thrown in, a little later…”That’s what this is for the Democrats, isn’t it? Their “Neville Chamberlain moment” before the Second World War. All that’s missing is the landing at the airport, with the blinkered leader waving a piece of paper which he naively thought would guarantee “peace in our time,” but which his opponent would ignore with deceit.The Democrats have merely streamlined the process. Their piece of paper already says Mr. Bush can ignore it, with impugnity.

And where are the Democratic presidential hopefuls this evening? See they not, that to which the Senate and House leadership has blinded itself? Judging these candidates based on how they voted on the original Iraq authorization, or waiting for apologies for those votes, is ancient history now. The Democratic nomination is likely to be decided... tomorrow. The talk of practical politics, the buying into of the President’s dishonest construction “fund-the-troops-or-they-will-be-in-jeopardy,” the promise of tougher action in September, is falling not on deaf ears, but rather falling on Americans who already told you what to do, and now perceive your ears as closed to practical politics.Those who seek the Democratic nomination need to—for their own political futures and, with a thousand times more solemnity and importance, for the individual futures of our troops—denounce this betrayal, vote against it, and, if need be, unseat Majority Leader Reid and Speaker Pelosi if they continue down this path of guilty, fatal acquiescence to the tragically misguided will of a monomaniacal president.

For, ultimately, at this hour, the entire government has failed us. Mr. Reid, Mr. Hoyer, and the other Democrats... have failed us.They negotiated away that which they did not own, but had only been entrusted by us to protect: our collective will as the citizens of this country, that this brazen War of Lies be ended as rapidly and safely as possible.
Mr. Bush and his government... have failed us. They have behaved venomously and without dignity—of course. That is all at which Mr. Bush is gifted. We are the ones providing any element of surprise or shock here. With the exception of Senator Dodd and Senator Edwards, the Democratic presidential candidates have (so far at least)failed us.
They must now speak, and make plain how they view what has been given away to Mr. Bush, and what is yet to be given away tomorrow, and in the thousand tomorrows to come. Because for the next fourteen months, the Democratic nominating process—indeed the whole of our political discourse until further notice—has, with the stroke of a cursed pen, become about one thing, and one thing alone. The electorate figured this out, six months ago. The President and the Republicans
have not—doubtless will not. The Democrats will figure it out, during the Memorial Day recess, when they go home and many of those who elected them will politely suggest they stay there—and permanently. Because, on the subject of Iraq...The people have been ahead of the media....Ahead of the government...Ahead of the politicians...For the last year, or two years, or maybe three. Our politics... is now about the answer to one briefly-worded question.Mr. Bush has failed. Mr. Warner has failed. Mr. Reid has failed. So. Who among us will stop this war—this War of Lies? To he or she, fall the figurative keys to the nation.To all the others—presidents and majority leaders and candidates and rank-and-file Congressmen and Senators of either party—there is only blame… for this shameful, and bi-partisan, betrayal.

Gore Continues To Leave The Door Open, While Obama Struggles To Gain Traction

If you have been paying attention to polls over the last few weeks you will notice that the slight upward trend Obama had through much of March and April has disappeared with Hillary Clinton gaining back the momentum and then some. For me I think the real issue is Obama's lack of clear policy statements. I also think that as long as he stays this close he can afford to wait on releasing his policy statements until mid-summer/early fall and take the good sized bump they should give him.

Meanwhile, Al Gore continues to leave the door open to his entry in the race, from the New York Times:

When I asked Gore why he hasn’t dismissed all the speculation by issuing a Shermanesque refusal to stand, as he did in 2002, Gore said, "Having spent 30 years as part of the political dialogue, I don’t know why a 600-day campaign is taken as a given, and why people who aren’t in it 600 days out for the convenience of whatever brokers want to close the door and narrow the field and say, ‘This is it, now let’s place your bets’ — If they want to do that, fine. I don’t have to play that game."

I think the fall should be interesting, with some potential big names like Newt Gingrich, Al Gore, Fred Thompson, or the independent ticket featuring Bloomberg or Hagel making an entry into things.

Back in the Saddle, Headed to the Heat of Battle

I am a master of rhymes as well. Welcome back as we look to head into the summer months! Many apologies for my lack of posts...I have been involved in a job search. That process is concluded and in mid-June I will be moving to the great state of Iowa. I did this just to be able to more effectively give you insight on this race!

One development to check out today are two new adds from Bill Richardson. The ads may shock you, because they are meant to be humorous, which is a trait you do not see in many campaign ads these days. The ads do a good job of showcasing the deep resume that Bill Richardson has.

Check them out here.

Nothing to Say Except God Bless Va Tech

Fundraising Numbers

Here is a link to the final reports for the first quarter fundraising numbers. It confirms that Obama did outraise Clinton in primary dollars and has a donor list about 40,000 stronger then Clintons. This probably means that Obama will continue to rake in more money headed for the primaries then any of his opponents.

"Everything was beautiful, and nothing hurt."

Today we take a turn away from politics to mourn the passing of Kurt Vonnegut, your humble hosts favorite author.

In 1994 I was a junior in high school and starting to really figure out who I was a person. It was the year I started what would be a 7 year smoking habit. I think I had always been one of those really good kids through my upbringing that was smart enough to question things I saw, but not daring enough to challenge things I disagreed with. During my junior year I moved into 3rd year German class, which was held in conjunction with 4th year German because the classes were so small. In this German class were a number of friends I had in high school, as well as some folks that I always considered "different" then me. I was not in the high school band, but the majority of my friends were, and in this German class were a group of band kids that I did not usually hang out with. They rode skateboards, smoked pot, and generally had a free spirit and casualness about school and life in general.

Through the year I got to know this crew better and one of them especially, Ben, who was a senior. We used to spend a lot of time hanging out and talking about music (he introduced me to the Violent Femmes, the Mighty Mighty Bosstones, Lou Reed, and the John Spencer Blues Explosion), current politics, and just who we were in the world. The deep stuff ya know! Anyway, I still remember the day that I was at Ben's house and after some discussions he told me that there were some books I needed to read. He took me up to his room and put two books in my hands that would fundamentally help change me. The first book was "A Clockwork Orange" by Anthony Burgess. I got this book because we had been talking about the movie version that I had recently seen. The second book he gave me was "Bluebeard" by Kurt Vonnegut. He gave me the warning, "This book will make you want to chain smoke", and he was right. I had never read a book written like "Bluebeard" was, it was cynical, yet optimistic, descriptive and rich. It is hard to explain, but it was a book that helped a part of me to wake up. A part of me that would start to question and seek out answers on my own on a variety of things.

Another thing that I learned from Ben was the amazing value of the library, and after my first taste of Vonnegut I hungrily went back for more and read many of his works: "Slaughterhouse Five", "Cat's Cradle", "Welcome to the Monkey House", "Galapagus", and "Breakfast of Champions". Part of the appeal of many of the books was the pseudo-science fiction they contained. They were also funny and entertaining, and revealed so much of the author in the process. Each one of those books has a place in my heart for the wonderful tales and emotions they stirred up in me.

Seeing that Vonnegut had passed away this morning was like a punch in the gut. You hate to lose those that have clearly made such an impact on you, and in ways that are so hard to describe. Some of the comments I have seen reflect back a piece of Vonnegut's words in "Slaughterhouse Five" by saying that he did not really die, he just became "unstuck in time".

I leave you with some of my favorite Vonnegut quotes, both from text and from life:

Be careful what you pretend to be because you are what you pretend to be.

I want to stand as close to the edge as I can without going over. Out on the edge you see all the kinds of things you can't see from the center.

People have to talk about something just to keep their voice boxes in working order so they'll have good voice boxes in case there's ever anything really meaningful to say.

1492. As children we were taught to memorize this year with pride and joy as the year people began living full and imaginative lives on the continent of North America. Actually, people had been living full and imaginative lives on the continent of North America for hundreds of years before that. 1492 was simply the year sea pirates began to rob, cheat, and kill them.

Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way.

Warrior vs. Priest

Edit: I am re-editing the post after reading an article by Ron Brownstein that I quote below.

To be fair, Barack Obama is a newcomer to the national presidential stage and has not had to undergo the rigid autopsy that the press, pundits, and opposition put candidates through. So it is difficult to read and hear about his "rookie mistakes"" as this piece in The Politico points out.

So many of the issues seem trivial to me, details lost in storytelling, but they are the kind of "bird pecks" that can start to undermine a candidate. Someone like a Hillary Clinton has been bird pecked to death, and so you know what you are getting with her and she knows how to respond. Obama is, by some measures, pristine in the world of politics. Of course it is our American nature to tarnish those images as much as possible to see how a candidate can rise above it.

It will be telling to see how Obama continues to shape his line of reason and react to some much he put down in print or said publicly before he decided to run for office.

Ron Brownstein raises the fascinating question about what type of candidate Barack Obama can ultimately become...warrior or priest. The money quotes for me:

It's not much of an oversimplification to say that the blue-collar Democrats tend to see elections as an arena for defending their interests, and the upscale voters see them as an opportunity to affirm their values. Each group finds candidates who reflect those priorities.

Democratic professionals often describe this sorting as a competition between upscale "wine track" candidates and blue-collar "beer track" contenders. Another way to express the difference is to borrow from historian John Milton Cooper Jr.'s telling comparison of the pugnacious Theodore Roosevelt and the idealistic Woodrow Wilson. Cooper described the long rivalry between Republican Roosevelt and Democrat Wilson as a contest between a warrior and a priest.

In modern times, the Democratic presidential race has usually pitted a warrior against a priest.Warrior candidates stress their ability to deliver on kitchen table concerns and revel in political combat. They tout their experience and flout their scars. Their greatest strength is usually persistence, not eloquence; they don't so much inspire as reassure. Think of Harry Truman in 1948, Hubert Humphrey in 1968 and, in a somewhat more diluted fashion, Walter Mondale in 1984 and John Kerry in 2004.

The priests, whose lineage runs back through McCarthy to Adlai Stevenson, present a very different face. They write books and sometimes verse. They observe the campaign's hurly-burly through a filter of cool, witty detachment. Their campaigns become crusades, fueled as much by inchoate longing for a "new politics" as tangible demands for new policies. In the past quarter of a century, Hart, Bradley and the late neo-liberal Paul Tsongas in 1992 each embodied the priest in Democratic presidential politics....

Not only have priests — including Hart, Tsongas and Bradley — run better among voters with college degrees, they've tended to run well in the Northeast, the West
Coast and portions of the upper Midwest where wine track voters congregate; the
warriors usually thrive in interior states such as Ohio, Missouri or Tennessee, where college graduates constitute 40% or less of the Democratic electorate.

That picture is coming into focus again, with one twist. The priests typically have been flattened among black voters, but Obama's African American heritage is helping him, already, to split the black vote fairly closely with Clinton in most surveys...

Since Obama entered the campaign, the question he's faced most often is whether he is "black enough" to win votes from African Americans. But the more relevant issue may be whether Obama is "blue enough" to increase his support among blue-collar whites.

I guess this article really effects the lense with which I view the campaign much more. Just reading it made me very aware of my own personal biasis toward the messages I hear from the Obama and Clinton camps and it makes great sense to me. I feel a strong disconnect from the blue collar folks out there and so their reality is often not always on my radar. I can totally see the compelling pull of the Clinton message to the blue collar worker who has to look out for number one more so then the grand ideology of a "priest" like Obama. Perhaps it is my own history, since graduating high school I have never been apart from the college campus. Having just moved off campus I am beginning to get "back in touch" with some of the realities of the world at large, but I still come from a place of such privlege that I cannot fully grasp some of the issues out there.

The article points out that priests have clearly been clobbered at the polls unless they make a transition toward the warrior front, someone like a Bill Clinton who walked like a warrior but had the vision of a priest can do well. However I am now very tuned into the message of Obama and how it might play to folks that are not neccessarily part of that University Ivory Tower. Perhaps he has the potential to rise above his small mistakes and find the warrior mentality. Perhaps he is too far seperated from his days of a community activist to reclaim it. It is a difficult road for him to walk, but one he must, because Clinton can do the warrior better, and John Edwards is certainly already well established as a priest. Could Barack Obama be the Paladin of the campaign (only WoW players may understand this analogy)?? Only time will tell.

Vilsack to Endorse Clinton

MSNBC is reporting that Tom Vilsack will endorse Hillary Clinton during her campaign stop in Iowa on Monday.

I file this under the "duh" category. Vilsack is the former head of the Democratic Leadership Council...a so called group for "moderate" Democrats, that is really a fairly conservative minded organization. They are also enthusiastically endorsing Hillary since the Clinton's were fundamental in the founding of the Council.

The bigger question is, does it matter? Vilsack could not garner enough intereste in his own state to justify staying in the race, so will it really matter that much? It probably matters more that Vilsack's wife is endorsing Clinton as Chrissy Vilsack is very popular in the state.

Edwards Announcement

Well first of all thoughts and prayers to Mrs. Edwards and the Edwards family for the hopeful safe treatment of the cancer that has returned and moved from her breast into the rib bones. It sure sounds like it is treatable but will never actually go away. I can't imagine the difficulty she must face in having to continue to battle cancer.

I was surprised to hear that the Edwards campaign continues, especially considering that he has stated in the past that he would leave the race if his wife's cancer returned. I will have to wait and see what some of the medical diagnosis says about the cancer...perhaps it is not so bad that it will debiliate her. He continues on and perhaps gains some compassion and understanding for the public announcement...however, the political cynic in me starts to wonder. If her cancer is so manageable that she and he are able to continue travelling, why announce it to the world? Why not keep that private, manage the treatments, and respond later is the cancer progresses?

Maybe things will change as they learn more about the cancer and if it has spread further and he wanted to address the issue before it leaked out in the press, at any rate, more power to them and I will keep them in my thoughts. I like Edwards quite a bit so I was worried at his possible departure.

Thoughts?

John Edwards Development

ABC News ticker at the top of their website:
JOHN EDWARDS AND HIS WIFE, ELIZABETH, TO HOLD PRESS CONFERENCE THURSDAY AT NOON ET -- DEVELOPING
Troubling news from DailyKos:


Aravosis has the possibilities:

This comes on the heels of Edwards canceling a campaign appearance recently due to his wife's health. More on that here.
What does this mean?
That everything is okay. Unlikely. You don't announce a press conference with your wife, and not tell the details in advance, if it's good news.
That Edwards is dropping out of the race and that his wife is seriously ill. Obviously we don't know, and I don't like speculating about someone's health like this. But this seems the most likely possibility at this point.
That Edwards is taking a break from campaigning to tend to his wife. This is also possible, but geez, that's still not good news for his campaign or for his family of course.

Please let it be the first one...

The "1984" Hillary Ad

Well, you may have likely already seen this pro-Obama ad since it has officially gone "viral" on the Internet. In case you haven't, you can check it out here. The ad is a recreation of a famous Apple computer ad from 1984 and spoofs George Orwell's famous book of the same title. The creator of the ad is unknown, suffice to say they are not a fan of Hillary.

The impact of the ad is up to interpretation for all who watch it. Personally I found it jarring, and I am not sure why, perhaps the imagery of the Big Brother esque Hillary and the powerful violent act of smashing the screen. Or it could be the symbolism of the hope that I feel Obama brings to a Democratic primary that is currently being led by one of the "same old" politicians. Only time will tell if Obama really is different, but ads like this continue the suttle full on assault on the "Hillary is inevitable" line of reasoning.

When you watch the ad, what do you feel? What emotions does it trigger? What is the message to you?

Fundraising

One of the clearest ways to show you are a serious candidate for President is to fund raise large gobs of money which you can use to bludgeon your opponents and increase your name recognition. The end of the first quarter will occur at the end of March and at that time we should get a better picture of where some of the candidates stand. We have already seen one candidate drop out because of his lack of funding...could big numbers by the top candidates cause more to drop out? We won't know the official numbers until April, but Hotline has some leaked information on what to expect. Some of the highlights:

*It appears Barack Obama raised $12 million through March 1st, with half of it coming through online donations (which would surpass Howard Dean levels of online work, especially since it is mostly unsolicitied).

*Hillary Clinton will be transferring over about $11 million from her Senate re-election fund and may report a number as high as $32 million for the first quarter, but a decent size of that apparently is already earmarked for the general election and can't be used for the primaries.

*John Edwards should keep pace with $12-$15 million. Dodd and Richardson should also report decent gains.

Many pundits are saying that it will be the 2nd Quarter (April-June) that will be the most important fundraising time, but an early start certainly helps.

First New Hampshire Poll in Over a Month

Shows good news for Obama...if he is closing on Clinton's lead this early, look out.

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE -- 212 Democrats and those who lean Democratic, sampling error plus or minus 4 percentage points. Suffolk
Clinton: 28
Obama: 26
Edwards: 17
Biden: 3
Kucinich: 2
Richardson: 2
Unsure: 17

The Nevada Fox News Debate

John Edwards yesterday became the first candidate to announce he would not attend a debate sponsored by Fox News and the Democratic Party in Nevada.

This scheduled debate has caused a large dustup in the online liberal community due to Fox News' record of distorting Democratic positions and outright disrespect of Democrats. For whatever reason, the Nevada Democratic Party decided to let Fox host and run a debate. Many, including myself, see no positive outcome out of a debate framed and run by what is clearly a Republican propaganda wing. Hopefully Edwards will not be the last candidate to back out of this ill conceived plan.

Breaking: Vilsack to Become First Candidate to Drop Out

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17297085/

Vilsack really never had a chance, and he had a conflict of who he was. He spent 5 years as the head of the Democratic Leadership Council that attacked anti-war Democrats and took a more conservative approach to somethings. He was recently forced out of that position when the org decided to throw themselves behind the Clinton campaign. Vilsack then tried to become an anti-war candidate calling for immeadiate withdrawl. He was just too plain to draw any traction in the crowded field...but he will make an excellent cabinet member in the next administration.

Update: I must say it is a crazy testament to the fast moving timeline that someone has announced, fundraised, and dropped out due to the fact that he is not gaining traction. Vilsack is smart though, he does not want to be embarassed by not finishing well in Iowa.

Clinton's Imperial Presidency?

NO ONE DARE CRITICIZE HILLARY CLINTON!

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
February 21, 2007 -- There’s a new mortal sin in American politics: criticizing Hillary Clinton.Nobody’s allowed to do it.Certainly none of her opponents. If they dare to, Hillary sends in one of her boys, who practically accuses them of being un-American. In January, without ever mentioning Hillary’s name and before she was even a candidate, John Edwards dared to express the view that silence on the Iraq War was “betrayal.” Ignoring the substance of Edwards’ speech, Clinton gun slinger Howard Wolfson immediately shot from the hip, attacking him for waging a negative campaign:“In 2004, John Edwards used to constantly brag about running a positive campaign. Today, hehas unfortunately chosen to operate his campaignwith political attacks on Democrats who are fightingthe Bush administration’s Iraq policy.”

If you like the idea of censorship of critical political speech, you’ll love Hillary Clinton as President. To Hilary, open political discourse apparently means that her opponents and their surrogates are free to compliment her. If they do otherwise, it’s off with their heads.Not even supporters of Hillary’s opponents are allowed to disparage her. If they do, the wrath of Hillary surfaces and it is not a pretty sight.

The latest sinner is Hollywood superstar David Geffen. Geffen used to be an avid supporter of the Clintons – he raised over $18 million for them in the past. But no more. Now the Dreamworld founder is backing Obama – and he’s not afraid to say so.That’s why Hillary wants him banished to political Siberia.Geffen gave an interview to New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd. Here’s a few tidbits from him that apparently rankled Hillary:“… I don’t think that another incredibly polarizing figure, no matter how smart she is and no matter how ambitious she is — and God knows, is there anybody more ambitious than Hillary Clinton? — can bring the country together.”“Obama is inspirational, and he’s not from the Bush royal family or the Clinton royal family. ““It’s not a very big thing to say, ‘I made a mistake’ on the war, and typical of Hillary Clinton that she can’t,”Geffen also call Bill Clinton “a reckless guy” who “gave his enemies a lot of ammunition to hurt him and to distract the country.”Hillary was outraged at what she called these ‘vicious’ and ‘personal’ attacks against her and her husband by Geffen.

Vicious? Those comments were vicious?Yes, to Hillary, they were. So, the Clinton camp wasted no time in trotting out Howard Wolfson to once again defend the honor of the heiress apparent and call for Geffen’s head. This time even an apology wouldn’t be enough: Hillary demanded that Obama dump Geffen and return the $1.3 million that he raised for Obama because of Geffen’s negative comments about the frontrunner and her husband. That would make things a lot easier for Hillary, wouldn’t it? In the world according to Hillary, there’s no place in politics for anyone who doesn’t love her and Bill.

Unfortunately for Hillary, Obama doesn’t seem to be shaking in his boots. In response to Hillary’s tirade, his campaign pointed out her hypocrisy and ignored her ridiculous demands. Obama’s spokesman pointedly refused to get in the middle of a Clinton- Geffen war.“It is ironic that the Clintons had no problem with David Geffen when he was raising the $18 million and sleeping at their invitation in the Lincoln bedroom.…It is also ironic that Senator Clinton lavished praise on Monday and is fully willing to accept today the support of South Carolina Senator Robert Ford who said if Barack Obama were to win the nomination, he would drag down the rest of the Democratic Party because he’s black.”(Remember Ford: he’s the guy that signed a $200,000 contract with the Clinton campaign right before he endorsed Hillary)

Hillary has never been tolerant of open political debate if that means people can legitimately criticize or publicly disagree with her. Now she’s become even more dogmatic, arrogantly believing that her frontrunner status is tantamount to a coronation. She seems to believe that it is an act of war for a fellow democrat to even challenge her for the nomination. If they disagree with her, they need to be punished and sent to their room.Watch for more of this imperial behavior. It’s her trademark and it will be the signature of a Hillary Clinton presidency. She learned a thing or two from Richard Nixon.

Tom Daschle Endorses Obama

WASHINGTON - Sen. Barack Obama won the endorsement Wednesday of former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, who said the White House hopeful "personifies the future of Democratic leadership in our country." Daschle said Obama has a"great capacity to unify our country and inspire a new generation of young Americans, just as I was inspired by the Kennedys and Martin Luther King when I was young."
Obama began his term in the Senate after Daschle lost his seat in 2004. But the South Dakotan served in the Senate with several of the other Democratic presidential hopefuls, including Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, Joe Biden of Delaware, Chris Dodd of Connecticut and John Edwards, a former lawmaker.
Daschle said the party was "very fortunate to have an extraordinary field of candidates."

Round One of Campaign Nasty

I really wish this campaign would be able to avoid the Dems ripping each other to shreds, but as Howard Fineman points out in his article, Hillary must show that she has the ability to counterattack effectively to show she can hold her own against the Republicans.

However, this issue did not come from Obama, it came from someone not even that closely related to his campaign. If Hillary were to get worked up over every donor that did not like her...well, she would have a lot of press releases.

I will just call this round one of the Obama-Clinton battle. Hopefully Barack can rise above the fray, because we know Clinton will fit and scratch as hard as she needs to. Meanwhile the lower tier candidates quietly collect cash and support, waiting to spring into the upper level.

Update: You can find a quick brief summary of the Nevada candidate forum here. More analysis to come later.

First Big Candidate Forum

Today is the day:

A Democratic Presidential Forum focusing on issues that affect working families will take place in Carson City, Nevada, on Wednesday, February 21, 2007. The event is sponsored by AFSCME and will be moderated by ABC's George Stephanopoulos.
More than 500 AFSCME members and retirees will attend this first-of-its-kind event. Confirmed candidates include Senator Joe Biden, Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Chris Dodd, former Senator John Edwards, former Senator Mike Gravel, Representative Dennis Kucinich, Governor Bill Richardson and former Governor Tom Vilsack.
The forum will take place on Wednesday, February 21st at 12:00 noon Pacific (3:00pm Eastern, 2:00pm Central, 1:00pm Mountain). AFSCME members and retirees from Nevada will ask the candidates where they stand on today's pressing issues:
Will they pledge to support a vibrant public sector workforce?
What will they do to protect Social Security and ensure that every American retires in dignity?
How will they make college more affordable for poor and middle class families?

Where, you might ask, is Barack Obama? Obama will be campaigning in Iowa today, skipping out on this event. My guess is that he wants to take his time before he puts himself on stage to get shredded by his opponents, so he has little to gain by appearing with them this early in the game. To me it seems like a good move.

If Obama were to attend, Hillary Clinton would be guns blazing on him since he is her chief rival at this time. She may still blast away at him, but the effect will be different because....
All of the other candidates will be gunning at Hillary, who is clearly the front runner. John Edwards has already been unleashing a hard line against Hillary, and now he stands to be the direct line of assault to her without Obama there. If the candidates get into a nasty place, Obama can rise above it by simply not being there. He is still riding his media buzz and does not get hurt by not attending.

I look for Edwards and Richardson to assert themselves in this forum and hopefully make some headway. Full coverage after the event tomorrow or later today.

Brazile Piece on Southern White Endorsements

Donna Brazile has a great piece in the Washington Times about the importance of Tim Kaine endorsing Barack Obama. In short, it is symbolic for a white Southern Governor to endorse a Black Northern Senator. The article makes some great points, so check it out. An excerpt:

Mr. Kaine's endorsement could help Mr. Obama immensely in the South by helping him raise money, select delegates and organize volunteers to help compete in neighboring states. Can you imagine if other Southern governors like Phil Breseden of Tennessee or Michael Easley of North Carolina or Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco of Louisiana (my home state) would wave the Obama banner and stand next to him as he competes for the support of their constituents? Richard Nixon's famous "Southern strategy" would become history, and America would finally turn the page on what Obama calls the "politics of yesterday."

Gore Makes Pretty Strong Statement That He Is Out

"I have no intention to run for president," Gore said in an interview conducted in Los Angeles and broadcast Thursday by the BBC."I can't imagine in any circumstance to run for office again," said the former Democratic vice president under then president Bill Clinton.

Another Big Obama Endorsement...This Time in Virginia

This is a great endorsement for Obama in a state that is really trending purple in the last few elections. They recently elected a 2nd consecutive Democratic Governor and Jim Webb as a new Senator.

RICHMOND, Virginia (AP) -- Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine will endorse Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, perhaps as early as the weekend,
two officials said Wednesday.Kaine, a Democrat who took office last year, has decided to endorse the Illinois senator in his bid for the party nomination, according to two officials with political ties to the governor.They spoke on the condition they not be identified because the decision had not been made public.Obama will headline the Democratic Party's annual Jefferson-Jackson Day fundraising gala in Richmond on Saturday night, an event Kaine will attend along with Democratic Sen. Jim Webb and former Gov. Mark R. Warner.Kaine has a strong political relationship with Obama, who traveled to Virginia the past two years to campaign for Kaine's gubernatorial campaign in 2005 and for Webb last fall."He has been real helpful, yeah," Kaine said at a news conference Wednesday. He would not directly confirm the report, but said there would be weekend developments."I'm still pondering (it) in deep detail and am likely to make an announcement sometime soon," Kaine said with a grin. "I think it's going to be a great day Saturday is what I think."

Warner was my choice for president until he backed out, I would love to see him as a VP candidate on any Democratic ticket. Maybe it will be a great Saturday with Kaine, Webb, and Warner endorsing Obama. Obama gained a lot of loyalty and friends by using his celebrity to campaign for Democratic candidates during 2006...expect that to help him land even more endorsements in the months ahead. Stay tuned.

Clinton Gets Endorsement from Two Black S.C. State Senators

The endorsements are not really all that noteworthy, except for the quotation from one of the men talking about what would happen if Obama was the nominee:

“Then everybody else on the ballot is doomed,” Ford said. “Every Democratic candidate running on that ticket would lose because he’s black and he’s at the top of the ticket — we’d lose the House, the Senate and the governors and everything.”

It makes me sad to hear this, but I also can't presume to know the challenges of running for office in the South as a black man or woman. If what Ford says is true, then it is a huge challenge for Obama to overcome. It feels partly like fear mongering, but everyone will always wonder whether a black politician can pull the support they need in the South. My hope is a candidate would be able to pull the support, otherwise it would just make Southern voters look out of touch with reality.

AFL-CIO Endorsement to come in March

As the primary calendars get moved up, apparently so do the endorsements in the never ending race to have your voice or your organization matter in the political process. Something seems broken with the current system...

According to AFL-CIO spokesperson Steve Smith, they are "working out details right now" for their WH '08 endorsement and are likely to announce their decision in early March, following their first Executive Council Meeting since the Nov. '06 elections in Las Vegas, NV, March 6th - 8th.Each of the 54 national and international labor unions within the AFL-CIO has their own respective endorsement processes and must be considered in forming the general AFL-CIO endorsement. The AFL-CIO endorsed Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) in Feb. '04, but Smith noted they "do not usually" make their endorsement decision as early as they plan to this cycle.

The AFL-CIO was the group of Unions that had much strife in 2004. A group of unions broke away and endorsed Howard Dean earlier in the primary season. Of course neither candidate won, thus furthering the weakened position of organized labor. The same unions that endorsed Howard Dean formed a new consensus called Change To Win. They are a more progressive group and I could see them going for Obama possibly, as he had wide support from them in his Illinois campaigns. As for the AFL-CIO, it has to be either Edwards (who has been very invested in courting labor the past four years) or Clinton (for ties to Bill). Of course, they could always come out and say "no endorsement", but then why would they have all this press about the decision? The choice to endorse continues to hurt the lesser known candidates who have very little time to establish themselves to stay viable in the mix of the big 3. Stay tuned!

Update: Hotline got it wrong. The AFL-CIO will announce its endorsement process in the coming weeks, NOT its endorsement. (Thanks to poster in comments for pointing this out).

Latest Rasmussen Poll

Rasmussen's latest national primary poll, 2/5-2/8, 435 LVs, previous numbers in parenthesis:

Clinton: 28 (34)
Obama: 23 (18)
Edwards: 13 (10)
Gore: 8 (10)

Keep in mind that Obama made up this ground without the huge media buzz surrounding his announcement.

This is a national poll, which matters little except to show where people's heads are at.

Obama Scores Two Big Iowa Endorsements

Typically you won't see big endorsements like this in Iowa so early, but Obama must have been doing some big time work in Iowa the last few weeks to score these two big endorsements so early.

AMES, IA - U.S. Senator Barack Obama's campaign today announced that Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and Iowa State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald have endorsed Barack Obama for President.
"Between the two of us, we have served the great state of Iowa for nearly 50 years, and we share a deep respect for this state and for the Iowa caucus process," Miller and Fitzgerald said in a joint statement. "Endorsing a candidate this early is no ordinary occurrence in the Iowa caucuses - but Barack Obama is no ordinary candidate. He spoke out in opposition to the war in Iraq before it started, and today he has an aggressive plan to redeploy our troops out of Iraq by the end of March of 2008. We believe that Senator Obama has the vision to meet the challenges America faces, and that his message of hope and unity will lead us to a new kind of politics where we are not defined by our divisions but united by our love of country."
Attorney General Miller and Treasurer Fitzgerald will join Obama Sunday at a campaign rally in Ames. On Saturday, Obama attended packed events in Cedar Rapids and Waterloo."I am honored and humbled that two public servants with such distinguished records of service have offered their support, their counsel, and their endorsements to my campaign," Obama said. "I look forward to working with them, hearing their ideas, and listening to the hopes and concerns of thousands of Iowans as we work together to change our politics and our country."

Why is this so important? Iowa Governor Chet Culver has already announced that he will not endorse a candidate, following the lead of former Gov. Tom Vilsack in 2004 (although Vilsack's wife campaigned hard for John Kerry....). So these endorsements represent the highest levels of state government and will open up the doors to a lot of connections and money in the state. It is also a major coup for Obama to score these endorsements over not only Hillary Clinton, but over Tom Vilsack who had been the Governor in Iowa for 8 years. With Culver sitting out, the only other high profile endorsement to score in Iowa will be that of Sen. Tom Harkin...who will be very cautious in who he endorses after endorsing Howard Dean in 2004 over Senate friend John Kerry. He paid the price later on for slighting Kerry, but Harkin may also be considering retiring and may not give a flip. Otherwise Iowa has three Congressional House members, two of them freshman. Stay tuned.

Obamarama!

While I fully inteded for this website to become a sounding board for candidates until I ultimately chose the candidate I would support, I have found that I am in a heavy fever for Barack Obama right now. I would still love to see Al Gore enter the race and I am still giving Edwards and Richardson a chance, but I am going to start doing some preliminary organizing for Barack Obama. My mind may change by summer, but I feel the need to launch in to help Obama organize and fundraise.

I will still be providing analysis of what is going on and be impartial to all candidates as I continue to work, just look at this as the next step in my 2008 journey!

Barack Barnstorms Iowa

Thanks to Nick Schrunk for some great pictures of Barack in Waterloo, IA yesterday after his announcement of candidacy. Nick is a great photographer and you can check out more of his work at his website, www.NickSchrunk.com

"I want us to take up the unfinished business of perfecting our union, and building a better America."

Nick and Barack.

Former Gore Staffers Mounting Draft Al Gore Campaign

It seems that a group of former Gore backers is meeting to strategize ways to encourage him to enter the race:

Veterans of Al Gore's past are quietly assembling a campaign to draft the former
vice president into the 2008 presidential race _ despite his repeated statements that he's not running. His top policy adviser from his 2000 presidential campaign and other key supporters met Thursday in Boston to mull a potential Gore campaign. The participants and Gore's Nashville office both said Gore, who is in London, is not involved.

One of the involved persons, Dylan Malone mounted a draft Gore campaign in 2002 and was asked to stop by Gore himself. The difference now:

In 2002, Gore asked Malone to stop a draft effort he had begun; Malone did.
Malone started up again and, so far, Gore hasn't waved him off.

Many interested folks would like to see Gore get into the race. He currently sits 4th in New Hampshire polls at 8 percent. His star will only get brighter as he is focused on at the Academy Awards and Nobel Prize ceremonies. He would be able to raise money quickly and shake things up. Will he run? Stay tuned...

Big Weekend for Obama. Hillary Like Bush, and Why the Dems Have All the Momentum.

Two great pieces on MSNBC this morning highlight a couple of things going on.

The first piece is an article about how Hillary is echoing the campaign of George Bush with her massive roll out, huge media response team, and lofty fundraising goals ($75 million by the end of the year, which she will likely surpass). The article also talks about her message she is leading with...that her candidacy is inevitable. To be sure, her roll out over the past three weeks has been masterful and orchestrated just like you would expect from the Clinton machine. She has taken all of the steam out of any other campaign and is reshaped herself as a softer version...I don't buy it for a second, but voters may like seeing her softer side, in part because there is no expectation for her to be warm and compassionate, so when she does come off that way it makes big headlines. I also dispise her methodology in making people think that her candidacy is inevitable...voters have a funny way of reacting to this and I hope that the Democratic primary voters will remind her that nothing is inevitable until we vote and say it is. She is clearly gaining traction in national and state polls, but it is still too early...at this point in his first election, Bill Clinton was polling in 11th place...so the race still has a long way to go.

Which brings me to Obama who will roll out his campaign starting tomorrow. MSNBC First Read has a nice article on why he is choosing the Old State Capitol in Springfield, IL as his location. It is the same location where Abraham Lincoln gave his famous speech about "A Nation Divided"...of course that was for the Illinois Senate race, which Lincoln lost...maybe not a great omen! For me as a voter, I need to see some substance and clear goals from Obama to help offset my worries about his inexperience. From reading his book it is clear to me that he has some bold visions and ideas, he just needs to articulate them now and start stealing some of the thunder from Hillary. I suspect that there is a large block of folks just waiting to jump on the Obamarama train, but he has to give them a reason to jump on board. Obama already has a huge following on Facebook, which is popular with college students, and the group there organized a rally at George Mason University last week with no help from the campaign that drew 3,500 students. He has the rock star appeal, now he needs the killer message.

The same First Read article highlights an interesting point about the two parties and their nomination processes so far. I quote directly below:

This weekend brings an exceptional series of events in the presidential race, with Barack Obama giving his announcement speech and Hillary Clinton making her first foray to New Hampshire as a candidate. But the crowds and attention certain to be drawn by these two reinforces that all the energy at this early stage of the race is with the Democrats, and that the Republican field is failing to enthuse the party base, inspire the press, or -- with the exception of Rudy Giuliani -- capture the public's imagination.

Conservatives lack a favorite among the party's top tier of candidates. The media's love affair with John McCain's underdog, shoestring effort of 2000 dissipated as the 2008 version grew into McCain, Inc. The press corps is also skeptical of Giuliani's ability to go the distance and win the nomination. Former Gov. Mitt Romney is too little known. And overall, the party is still contending with the cold front of public opinion that froze them out of the majority last November and continues today because of President Bush's unpopular policies on Iraq. All three of the top candidates support a US troop increase.

Now this is the kind of message of inevitability that I like to see! It is clear that the Democratic side is carrying a ton of positive momentum right now. If our candidates keep it clean, stay on message, and continue to showcase how many stars we have I think it will be hard for the Republican candidate to grab much traction. Our top candidates have broad appeal to moderate as well as liberal voters and the Republican side is really lacking candidates with the same kind of charisma or excitement. I could be proven wrong in the long haul, but right now I like our chances very much with any of our top 3-5 candidates.

I will wrap up this lenghty post with my newest round of where I see the candidate...in an abreviated format!

1. Hillary Clinton: See has all the momentum now and is coming off very confident...she still is an outlier in regards to her stance on Iraq and this could hurt her when the debates start.

2. Barack Obama: Still has the hope of the people, needs substance and to get a better functional website!

3. John Edwards: He is hammering away at Hillary and the Senate Dems without mentioning them by name, however people don't seem to be latching onto his message like they did in 2004.

4. Bill Richardson: Many say he was the big winner coming out of the DNC winter meetings. He is gaining traction with his focus and experience on foreign issues...does he have the ability to climb into the top tier?

5. Chris Dodd: His roll out has surprised me...he is doing some good talking about the war in Iraq and has impressed me with some of his other policy stances.

6. Joe Biden: I rank him here because of his name recognition factor...but he is done. His mouth gets him into trouble and his comments about Obama relegated him into a very very long shot.

7. Tom Vilsack: He is talking, but is anyone really listening?

8. Wesley Clark: How much longer can he afford to wait if he really wants a shot at this?

9. Dennis Kucinich: Reintroducing legislation for a Department of Peace.

10. Michael Gravel: Speech at DNC widely panned, I won't be surprised if he doesn't get invited to debates.

My top favorites have not really changed...I am starting to think my dream ticket would be Al Gore and Barack Obama, but I would equally be pleased with a Obama and Mark Warner ticket. A Hillary Clinton and Evan Bayh ticket just makes me want to sit on my couch.

Obama's Saturday and Sunday Announcement Blitz

If you had any questions on whether or not Obama was going to back out or announce on Saturday, they are answered with a multi-city barnstorming tour after the Springfield, IL kick off.

Visits to Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Ames, and Chicago mean you could go to see him.

Check this link for more details:
http://www.barackobama.com/news/announcement_tour/

Obama Becomes First Candidate to Clearly Call For Timeline of Iraqi Withdrawl

Obama really does have the upper hand regarding Iraq as he can back up that he was against the invasion from the beginning, never voted for it, and is fighting to bring troops home. Not even Edwards has proposed a timeline. To be fair, Vilsack has asked for troops to come home immeadiately, but with no real plan. Obama now has introduced the plan.

(Washington, D.C.) - Today, Senator Barack Obama (D-IL), Congressman Mike Thompson (D-CA) and Congressman Patrick Murphy (D-PA) called for a stop to President Bush's escalation in Iraq and for an end to the war. At a press conference in the U.S. Capitol, Senator Obama and Reps. Thompson and Murphy discussed the Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007 - legislation they introduced in the Senate and the House which puts forward a plan to stop the recent escalation in forces and a plan to redeploy American troops from Iraq starting May 1, 2007. Senator Obama introduced the bill in the Senate and Reps. Thompson and Murphy introduced the companion legislation in the House of Representatives.
Congressman Thompson is a Vietnam Veteran and a former U.S. Army staff sergeant/platoon leader with the 173rd Airborne Brigade and Congressman Murphy is a former U.S. Army Captain and Iraq war veteran."Our troops have preformed brilliantly in Iraq, but no amount of American soldiers can solve the political differences at the heart of somebody else's civil war," Senator Obama said. "That's why our plan not only stops the escalation of this war, but begins a phased redeployment that can pressure the Iraqis to finally reach a political settlement and brings all U.S. combat troops home by March of next year."
"Our troops have done an amazing job, but success in Iraq will only be achieved by the Iraqis themselves," said Congressman Mike Thompson. "Sending more troops into the heart of Iraq's civil war will only put more American lives at risk. This legislation provides a practical plan for ending the war as safely and quickly as possible."
"As someone who served in Baghdad with the 82nd Airborne, I can tell you that what's needed in Iraq is a surge in diplomacy, not an escalation of force. This legislation seeks a much-needed political solution and puts forward a tough and sensible plan to end the war," said Congressman Patrick Murphy. "We shouldn't be sending American men and women to referee a civil war. Our troops have done their job, now it's time to start bringing them home and to force more Iraqis to come off the sidelines and fight for their country."

The binding legislation ends President Bush's escalation by capping the number of troops at January 10, 2007 levels, puts forward specific benchmarks for success in Iraq and establishes a timeline to redeploy our troops. Redeployment, according to the bill, would begin no later than May 1, 2007, with the goal of all combat brigades redeployed by March 31, 2008 - a date consistent with the recommendations of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group. Troops would be sent either home to their families in the U.S., to Afghanistan where more troops are needed to fight the war on terror or would remain in the region to train Iraqis, protect against more violence and perform counterterrorist activities. The Iraq War De-Escalation Act will refocus the efforts of American armed forces on Afghanistan and the hunt for Osama bin Laden and urges the president to send, within 60 days, a Special Envoy to Iraq to begin the
important work of diplomacy with key nations in the region.

Obama announces his candidacy officially on Saturday...I had thought about driving down to attend, but I will instead by covering it from computer.

DNC Winter Meetings: Candidate Speech Summaries

This past weekend the Democratic National Committee held it's winter meetings. Each of the major candidates gave a speech. Wesley Clark also spoke (how much longer can he afford to stay undeclared?). Each link below is to Hotline who did a fun summary of each speech with categories such as standing ovation, suck-ups to Howard Dean, and cliches.

Chris Dodd
Barack Obama
Wesley Clark
John Edwards
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, and Tom Vilsack

Sounds to me like Bill Richardson came out ahead by playing to the crowd. Richardson does have a lion's share of great experience. If he can start to convince folks from the DNC to back him, it could make things interesting. Remember that each DNC member gets a vote to cast at the convention which makes them important allies. It was at this very winter meeting four years ago that Howard Dean made a big splash by beginning his speech by saying:

What I want to know is why in the world the Democratic party leadership is supporting the president's unilateral attack on Iraq.

What I want to know is why are Democratic party leaders supporting tax cuts. The question is not how big the tax cut should be, the question should be can we afford a tax cut at all with the largest deficit in the history of this country.

What I want to know is why we're fighting in Congress about the Patient's Bill of Rights when the Democratic party ought to be standing up for health care for every single American man, woman, and child in this country.

What I want to know is why our folks are voting for the president's No Child Left Behind bill that leaves every child behind, every teacher behind, every school board behind, and every property tax payer behind.

I'm Howard Dean and I'm here to represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic party.

Sigh. I am still waiting for a "Howard Dean" type moment from the current candidates. I really question if there is that much fire in any of these candidates, but only time will tell.

Oh yeah...Al Gore's former campaign manager strongly hints that Gore may just be biding his time before entering the Presidential race.

Joe Biden's Obama Screw UP

A comment from poster Rob:

Joe Biden is a jackass. Calling Barack the first Black that was worth anything as a political candidate (basically) is just stoopid.I'd vote for Chuck Hagel, (R)-Neb. before I'd vote for Biden. What a train-wreck he is! How many blunders can one man make...stealing speeches from other people, making insensitive remarks time and time again...Please, God, help Dems see that he just can't be the candidate we put forth.

Well put and an apt summary for Biden again sticking his foot in his mouth when it comes to minorities. While some will call it an accidental slip or other being overly PC, it is a major messup during the launch of his campaign and will likely end the small shred of hope he did have to try and compete for the nomination. In case you did miss it, the story was from the New Your Observer.

In the New York Observer article, Biden called Clinton's plan for Iraq "nothing but disaster"; said Edwards doesn't know "what the heck he is talking about" on Iraq; and said this about Obama: "'You got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy... I mean, that's a storybook, man.'"

This comes after comments earlier from Biden that you couldn't walk into a 7-11 or Dunking Donuts in his home state of Delaware unless you had an Indian accent.

Credibility questionable, sensitivity low, presidential chances....zero. The next round of rankings will reflect this.

Joe Biden is Officially In

Nothing to exciting since we knew this was coming, but his website is now updated.

Hillary Goes to Iowa, But the Reviews Are Mixed

The Washington Post has a story today about the mixed reaction that Hillary Clinton got in her first trip to Iowa in nearly three years this past weekend. The article also comments on just how wide open the race in Iowa is.

It seems that Hillary did win over some voters who go to see her be "warm" in small in home group gatherings in Iowa, but some voters were not enthused by her question answering sessions. Hillary avoided talking about Iraq at all and steered her comments toward her general support of the military...with no specifics on Iraq. This seemed to upset some voters.

The article also discusses that many Iowans see Barack Obama as the rock star, but are curious about his readiness and experience. My guess is if Obama can address this effectively he will walk away with this nomination, but he needs to start doing some talking about where he stands on the issues and how he will govern.

Even though John Edwards leads in the early polls in Iowa, the article discusses the fact that many voters do not feel enthusiastic about him. My thought behind this is that he is damaged goods that has not been able to win the nomination, or help the Kerry ticket win, before. Democratic voters want a clear and confident candidate that they know can win...they don't want to push another "best effort" to the front as a candidate.

So, with mixed reviews from the trip for Hillary we still don't know much, except that voters are taking their time to size up the candidates before they are ready to launch in and commit. Seems logical to me.

The Chorus on Obama

I am pretty sure that Barack Obama was prepared for all of the questions that he would face as he announced his decision to run for President. The chorus of questions and doubters has grown steadily over the past two weeks. To quickly sumamrize, here is what I am seeing and hearing the most:

* So far most of the press has been about the very blank resume that Barack has. People seem to be a little leary about his lack of experience. To be fair, Barack is pretty green and he has not yet done a great job of announcing where he stands on many issues. His website is one of only a handful of candidate websites that does not feature a section on issues. I imagine the website will be relaunched when he officially announces and hopefully he will have some detailed information as to where he stands on various issues. From reading his book I can get a pretty good grasp on where he stands broadly on most issues, but I would still like to hear some more specifics...but that is true of all of the candidates so far.

* There is an article on MSNBC today asking if Barack can really win the black vote. Currently black voters favor Hillary 3 to1 and John Edwards will also make a strong case for their votes as well. If Al Sharpton were to enter the race then he further splinters the votes. The article talks about how many blacks are impressed with Obama's ability to appeal to white voters (which they see as being crucial to actually electing a black president), but they are unsure who he is and who he represents. The article seems to argue that in order to win Barack can't be "black enough" as to endear himself to the black voting base without losing the important white support. I think that much like other voters, black voters are waiting to see what Obama stands for and is all about before they throw all of their support behind him.

* We have also already seen the negative attacks that Obama will face. So far these have centered around his name and his past history of attending a Muslim school when he was very young. There is really nothing but bigotry behind these types of attacks, but we all know that they are effective for some segments of voters out there.

I really hope to start seeing some more substance out of all of these campaigns soon, but for now they are in fundraising mode to see if they can even become competitive. With California, Michigan, Florida, New Jersey, and Illinois all looking to move up their primaries it may force the campaigns to rewrite strategies and think on the fly. That should result in some solid information coming soon.

For my part, I hope to start evaluating candidates on the issues on this website soon. I have set a target date of June 1st to select the candidate I will be working for. However, this could change based on dynamics, revelations, and my overall disposition at the time. Stay tuned.

BREAKING NEWS: KERRY WILL NOT RUN

Via CNN:

Wednesday, January 24, 2007 WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, will not run for the White House in 2008, two Democrats close to Kerry tell CNN. Kerry will take to the Senate floor this afternoon to announce his plans to forgo a run and will also send out an email to supporters telling them of his decision.

I will post links to his announcement after the official declaration. This was inevitable, he was damaged goods and could not compete with the rock stars already in the race.

Candidate Reactions to the State of the Union

Here is a random sampling of reactions to the state of the Union from some of the Democrats running for President.

Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Connecticut (Kerry also promised to introduce legislation)
"I'm heartened to hear the President speak about creating a sustainable energy independence plan, expanding health care access for the millions of Americans who are uninsured, tackling comprehensive immigration reform and ensuring educational success for all Americans...I remain steadfastly opposed to the President's plan for Iraq, sending thousands more of our nation's men and women into harm's way in a country in the midst of a civil war...Tomorrow in the Foreign Relations Committee, I will offer the legislation I introduced last week which limits troop levels in Iraq without new authorization by Congress in advance."

Former Sen. John Edwards, D-North Carolina (notice the dig on McCain...Edwards is fighting hard already!)
"President Bush's address tonight was heavy on rhetoric, but light on everything else. The American people said they wanted change and what they got was more of the same -- small ideas that won't make a difference in the lives of working Americans...President Bush's decision to adopt the McCain Doctrine and escalate the war in Iraq is terribly wrong. There is no military solution to this civil war. Instead of increasing the number of troops in Iraq, we should immediately withdraw 40-50,000 troops."

Gov. Bill Richardson, D-New Mexico (I like him more and more!)
"Welcome to the party, Mr. President, the rest of the country and the world have been talking and doing something about these issues for years. In addition to being years behind, what the President is proposing doesn't go far enough and isn't realistic...Ultimately we need a 'man-on-the moon' effort focused on energy independence. Anything less will not create the change necessary to make a lasting difference."

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York
"The President finally acknowledged the problem of global warming and the need to develop alternative energy sources, but he did not offer a real plan to deal with climate change or to put us on a path to energy independence. The President finally addressed the need to deal with the health care crisis, but offered a proposal that does nothing make health insurance more affordable or accessible for the millions of uninsured and underinsured Americans. The President called for No Child Left Behind to be reauthorized this year, but has failed to ensure the funding needed to fulfill the promise of this landmark law. And instead of charting a new course in Iraq, including the political solution desperately needed, so that we can begin to bring our troops home, the President continued his defense of failed strategy and his escalation plan in Iraq.

Moving Toward the National Primary

Most of this information comes from a nice post on Daily Kos.

The early primary calendar looks like this so far (number of delegates):


Iowa (39): 1/14
Nevada (22): 1/19
New Hampshire (19): 1/22
South Carolina (39): 1/29

Then on 2/5 (some of these may not be official yet): Alabama (45), Arizona (49), Arkansas (30), Delaware (13), Missouri (63), New Mexico (23), North Carolina (79), and Utah (20).

Now, with Florida (161) and California (322) looking to move up to Feb. 5, along with New Jersey (93) and Michigan (111), it looks like the national primary is effectively here.


This type of calendar will definately favor those that can raise tons of money quickly and may also help to produce a more national consensus candidate. Iowa and New Hampshire will no longer have the sole power in deciding the nominee early on. Some rumors also have Illinois looking to potentially move into the February 5th date as well. The mix of states is nice and should provide some very early answers as to who the nominee will be....then 6 months of waiting until the conventions!

Hillary Clinton says "SHOW ME THE MONEY!!"

Hillary Clinton confirmed yesterday that she will forego public financing of her primary and general election campaigns. She is the first candidate to do so. What does this mean?

If a candidate accepts public financing, the government gives them a certain amount of money for their campaign. The candidate then cannot raise more money from private donors then what the government has given them. By opting out of public financing a candidate can raise oodles of money to spend on brow beating their opponents with negative ads and yard signs. :-)

The last two elections have seen the death of public financing because of the outrageous costs associated with television ads in a national campaign. Most of the serious candidates will have to opt out of public financing if they hope to remain competitive in this wide open field.

Catch Your Breath: Bill Richardson is in

It really has been a whirlwind past two weeks as the presidential field became more and more clear. In case you missed it yesterday, Bill Richardson announced he would be running for president as well. I have to question his timing the day after Hillary. I mean, he is already a name not many people know, and then he announces right in the middle of the media storm over Hillary's announcement? Not the best move, but at least he is in.

At this point we are really only waiting to hear from Wes Clark and possibly John Kerry. Personally, I would be pretty intimidated by the field that is already announced if I were these two, but you just never know what people will do this early in the game.

Hillary Clinton Announces Candidacy Today

Hillary Clinton proclaims she "Is In" on her webpage. I amnot a fan but she is still a clear front runner and a historic entrant as the first possible female nominee from the major parties. Hopefully she will run with dignity.

Fox Uses Bigotry and Fear to Divide Again

This is the full text of an article appearing on Daily Kos. Some attention is being paid to the fact that as a young child Barack Obama attended a Muslim school. There is some dispute on if Clinton's campaign leaked the info:

The right-wing magazine Insight features a "report" that Hillary's people are digging up info that Obama attended an Islamic school as a child. The report reads like typical right-wing propaganda bullshit. I doubt the right has great sources inside the campaign of the person they've most trashed the past 15 years. But no smear is too ridiculous for Fox News to amplify.

This morning, Fox News featured a segment highlighting a right-wing report that Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) attended an Islamic “madrassa” school as a 6-year-old child. Fox & Friends host Steve Doocy pointed out that madrassas are “financed by Saudis” and “teach this Wahhabism which pretty much hates us,” then declared, “The big question is: was that on the curriculum back then?” Later, a caller to the show questioned whether Obama’s schooling means that “maybe he doesn’t consider terrorists the enemy.” Fox anchor Brian Kilmeade responded, “Well, we’ll see about that.” The Fox hosts failed to correct the false claim that Obama is Muslim. One caller, referring to Obama, said, “I think a Muslim would be fine in the presidency, better than Hillary. At least you know what the Muslims are up to.” Anchor Gretchen Carlson responded, “We want to be clear, too, that this isn’t all Muslims, of course, we would only be concerned about the kind that want to blow us up.”

Obama is Christian, a member of Chicago’s Trinity United Church of Christ since 1988. The hosts are trying to make it seem that Obama somehow hid this part of his life. Except that he hasn't.

From his book
Dreams of my Father:In Indonesia, I’d spent 2 years at a Muslim school, 2 years at a Catholic school. In the Muslim school, the teacher wrote to tell mother I made faces during Koranic studies. In the Catholic school, when it came time to pray, I’d pretend to close my eyes, then peek around the room. Nothing happened. No angels descended.

And in Audacity of Hope:
Without the money to go to the international school that most expatriate children attended, I went to local Indonesian schools and ran the streets with the children of farmers, servants, tailors, and clerks.

Remember, the primaries are less than a year away. And what a year it will be. It'll be non-stop bashing of blacks, women, Muslims, trial lawyers, and brown people south of the border. And the GOP's hatred for anyone who isn't a privileged (by birth) white male will be in full display.
With Iraq burning out of control, the GOP senses its imminent 2008 disaster. It's a cornered, wounded animal with little chance of escape. And those are the most dangerous of all.

Kos is right on with his assessment of the GOP and their rapidly crumbling chances at relevance in 2008. I really hope the part about Clinton is not true. I would hate to see Dems resort to Republican smear tactics of using racial biases and ignorance to try to scare voters...however I won't put it past a desperate candidate such as Clinton, who has banked on being the clear front runner and is now playing second fiddle to a more likeable candidate. To be sure Clinton is a cold-blooded political soul and will do what it takes to make her case, which is one of the reasons I think she will not have a shot at landing the nomination.

Zogby Polls

Zogby Polls of Iowa and New Hampshire for both parties....he includes Condi Rice for the Republicans...not sure why.

IOWA
1/15-16. Caucus voters. MoE 4.6% (No trend lines)

Democrats
Edwards 27
Obama 17
Clinton 16
Vilsack 16

Republicans
Giuliani 19
McCain 17
Gingrich 13
Rice 9
Romney 5


NEW HAMPSHIRE
1/15-16. Caucus Primary voters. MoE 4.6% (No trend lines)

Democrats
Obama 23
Clinton 19
Edwards 19
Kerry 5

Republicans
McCain 26
Giuliani 20
Romney 13
Rice 7
Gingrich 6

Early Polls

It is so super early, but it is interesting to take a look at a couple of early polls...if nothing else but to show that Hillary really has some work to do if she is really to be considered the early front runner.

A new poll from Rasmussen that measured from 1/8-1/11 (before Obama announced), MoE 5%:

(Parenthesis are results from last poll, 11/8-12/4)

Clinton 22 (34)
Obama 21 (17)
Edwards 15 (9)
Gore 7 (9)
Kerry 4 (3)
Biden 4 (3)
(Crosstabs not available yet, so no updated numbers on the following:)
Clark ? (3)
Vilsack ? (1)
Richardson ? (1)
Other ? (7)
Not sure ? (15)

Most surprising is how far Hillary fell off from the last poll, leaving her and Obama in a virtual dead heat. This was before he announced as well. My guess is this kind of fall means that she will have to declare soon to try and get some of the heavy news about Obama to die down and get some press herself.


The second poll is the January Straw Poll from Daily Kos. This poll can be significant because Kos is a site that caters to a crowd that is a bit more left and progressive, which are people that campaign hard, donate online, and come out to vote in primaries. If you follow the link it shows the trend from several months of polling from even 2005.

Jan
Edwards 35
Obama 28
Clark 17
Richardson 5
H. Clinton 4
Biden 1
Kerry 1
Vilsack 0
Dodd 0
Gravel 0

Update: Zogby has his first poll of Iowa, but be warned that caucuses are very hard to poll.

Edwards 27
Obama 17
Vilsack 16
Clinton 16
Biden 3
Kerry 3
Kucinich 1
Richardson 1
Unsure 13

Obama Creates Exploratory Committee, Final Decision to Come in Illinois on February 10th

Barack Obama has announced today that he is forming an exploratory committee for a run for President. While not an official announcement, it is in fact a likely sign that he will decide to run. Barack has posted a video on his website which you can watch here, explaining his choice.

He states that he will spend the next few weeks talking to people and listening to what they have to say, and then will appear in Illinois on February 10th to announce his plans and his vision. Sure as heck sounds like he is in! I have stated before that I am excited to see what Obama has to offer and consider him a top candidate. Once we know what he is up to it will probably force Hillary to enter the race soon.

Also in the news today Bill Richardson says he will announce his intentions before the end of the month.

Update: Here is a link to a great article about the shrewdness of Obama in only announcing his exploratory committee with another announcement about his final decision. For now, I am putting Obama in the running category.

Hillary and Edwards Exchange Barbs

The New York Post has the summary of a veiled attack on Clinton by Edwards, and a strong rebuttal directly at Edwards from Clinton. The article makes some interesting points that are worth considering:

Clinton's full-blown response to Edwards signals that her team considers him a top-tier threat. He has been touring the country ever since his 2004 defeat as Sen. John Kerry's vice-presidential running mate. The former North Carolina senator has topped polls in Iowa, home of the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Clinton now faces a double-barreled threat from two charismatic contenders, Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

Although Edwards and Clinton both gave the same vote to authorize the war in Iraq, it is Edwards that has been the more outspoken critic of the war now. Hillary has been much more moderate and has closely watched her criticism of the war in order to boost her hawk credentials. Edwards has recanted for his original vote while Hillary has not said her vote was a mistake.

Even Earlier Debates

I had previously noted the early debate in South Carolina in April. Last week it was announced that CNN will be hosting and airing debates in New Hampshire on April 4th and 5th. The entire nominating process seems to move earlier and earlier with debates starting sooner and a number of states jockeying to move their primaries closer to Iowa and New Hampshire so that their voters can have a say in choosing the candidates.

Does a national primary day begin to make sense? Maybe. A future post will address the topic.

A Look At Things On The Right

I won't spend a lot of time focusing on the Republican candidates, but there are going to be other folks that track the progress. Chuck Todd at the National Journal gives a break down of how the Republican field looks right now.

Obama To Announce Candidacy Wednesday on Oprah?

So far, that is the rumor that is circulating. An interesting choice of place to announce a candidacy, but also a powerful place. In my mind if he decides to run he probably becomes the early front runner. Stay tuned.