The first piece is an article about how Hillary is echoing the campaign of George Bush with her massive roll out, huge media response team, and lofty fundraising goals ($75 million by the end of the year, which she will likely surpass). The article also talks about her message she is leading with...that her candidacy is inevitable. To be sure, her roll out over the past three weeks has been masterful and orchestrated just like you would expect from the Clinton machine. She has taken all of the steam out of any other campaign and is reshaped herself as a softer version...I don't buy it for a second, but voters may like seeing her softer side, in part because there is no expectation for her to be warm and compassionate, so when she does come off that way it makes big headlines. I also dispise her methodology in making people think that her candidacy is inevitable...voters have a funny way of reacting to this and I hope that the Democratic primary voters will remind her that nothing is inevitable until we vote and say it is. She is clearly gaining traction in national and state polls, but it is still too early...at this point in his first election, Bill Clinton was polling in 11th place...so the race still has a long way to go.
Which brings me to Obama who will roll out his campaign starting tomorrow. MSNBC First Read has a nice article on why he is choosing the Old State Capitol in Springfield, IL as his location. It is the same location where Abraham Lincoln gave his famous speech about "A Nation Divided"...of course that was for the Illinois Senate race, which Lincoln lost...maybe not a great omen! For me as a voter, I need to see some substance and clear goals from Obama to help offset my worries about his inexperience. From reading his book it is clear to me that he has some bold visions and ideas, he just needs to articulate them now and start stealing some of the thunder from Hillary. I suspect that there is a large block of folks just waiting to jump on the Obamarama train, but he has to give them a reason to jump on board. Obama already has a huge following on Facebook, which is popular with college students, and the group there organized a rally at George Mason University last week with no help from the campaign that drew 3,500 students. He has the rock star appeal, now he needs the killer message.
The same First Read article highlights an interesting point about the two parties and their nomination processes so far. I quote directly below:
This weekend brings an exceptional series of events in the presidential race, with Barack Obama giving his announcement speech and Hillary Clinton making her first foray to New Hampshire as a candidate. But the crowds and attention certain to be drawn by these two reinforces that all the energy at this early stage of the race is with the Democrats, and that the Republican field is failing to enthuse the party base, inspire the press, or -- with the exception of Rudy Giuliani -- capture the public's imagination.
Conservatives lack a favorite among the party's top tier of candidates. The media's love affair with John McCain's underdog, shoestring effort of 2000 dissipated as the 2008 version grew into McCain, Inc. The press corps is also skeptical of Giuliani's ability to go the distance and win the nomination. Former Gov. Mitt Romney is too little known. And overall, the party is still contending with the cold front of public opinion that froze them out of the majority last November and continues today because of President Bush's unpopular policies on Iraq. All three of the top candidates support a US troop increase.
Now this is the kind of message of inevitability that I like to see! It is clear that the Democratic side is carrying a ton of positive momentum right now. If our candidates keep it clean, stay on message, and continue to showcase how many stars we have I think it will be hard for the Republican candidate to grab much traction. Our top candidates have broad appeal to moderate as well as liberal voters and the Republican side is really lacking candidates with the same kind of charisma or excitement. I could be proven wrong in the long haul, but right now I like our chances very much with any of our top 3-5 candidates.
I will wrap up this lenghty post with my newest round of where I see the candidate...in an abreviated format!
1. Hillary Clinton: See has all the momentum now and is coming off very confident...she still is an outlier in regards to her stance on Iraq and this could hurt her when the debates start.
2. Barack Obama: Still has the hope of the people, needs substance and to get a better functional website!
3. John Edwards: He is hammering away at Hillary and the Senate Dems without mentioning them by name, however people don't seem to be latching onto his message like they did in 2004.
4. Bill Richardson: Many say he was the big winner coming out of the DNC winter meetings. He is gaining traction with his focus and experience on foreign issues...does he have the ability to climb into the top tier?
5. Chris Dodd: His roll out has surprised me...he is doing some good talking about the war in Iraq and has impressed me with some of his other policy stances.
6. Joe Biden: I rank him here because of his name recognition factor...but he is done. His mouth gets him into trouble and his comments about Obama relegated him into a very very long shot.
7. Tom Vilsack: He is talking, but is anyone really listening?
8. Wesley Clark: How much longer can he afford to wait if he really wants a shot at this?
9. Dennis Kucinich: Reintroducing legislation for a Department of Peace.
10. Michael Gravel: Speech at DNC widely panned, I won't be surprised if he doesn't get invited to debates.
My top favorites have not really changed...I am starting to think my dream ticket would be Al Gore and Barack Obama, but I would equally be pleased with a Obama and Mark Warner ticket. A Hillary Clinton and Evan Bayh ticket just makes me want to sit on my couch.
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